Bloomberg reports that Russia's demands for one of its largest state-run banks to be reconnected to the SWIFT financial system are part of a "deliberate strategy to test how far US President Donald Trump is willing to go in pressing Europe to ease sanctions, according to people familiar with the situation." The selection of the banking sanctions as a focus "was to see if Trump would firstly engage with the idea and then whether he could bring the European Union on board".
- BBG: "This is a test for Trump,” said Pavel Danilin, a political analyst who works with Kremlin officials. “The Kremlin wants to see how Trump will cope with his promises.”
- The demands, laid out by Moscow as a condition for agreeing to a truce in the Black Sea, risks driving deeper the wedge between the US and Europe. At a meeting in Paris on 27 March, Ukraine's European allies rejected the idea of an easing of sanctions on Russia, and indeed UK PM Sir Keir Starmer said that a tightening of measures was discussed to put "further pressure" on Russia.
- The EU's acquiescence to any financial sanctions relief is required, given that SWIFT's HQ is in Belgium.
- Should Trump look to push the EU to offer Russia sanctions relief in order to potentially expedite a ceasefire without Ukraine's approval, it could see the already heavily-strained Euro-US relations damaged further.