EU: BBG-Commission Proposed Long-Term Budget Near EUR2 Trillion
Jul-16 13:23
Bloomberg News reports that the European Commission is set to propose a new Multiannual Financial Framework (MFF) for the period 2028-2034, amounting to EUR1.98 trillion, a major increase on the EUR1.2 trillion allocated for the last MFF period running 2021-27. Today's announcement marks only the start of a multi-year process of negotiation between the Commission, Parliament and member states ahead of the final agreement, which requires unanimity.
- Bloomberg News: "Included in the draft plan is a €589.6 billion competitiveness, prosperity and security fund, of which €450.5 billion is earmarked for an EU competitiveness fund...Farming, which has long been one of the cornerstones of the EU budget, once again will get a big chunk of funding with €293.7 billion proposed for the bloc’s common agricultural policy,"
- The formal announcement of the initial proposals has been delayed amid tense negotiations overnight within the Commission. Euractiv reports that Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin, "was supposed to brief MEPs on the package at 12:30 pm. His appearance has been delayed to 2 pm, but this slot has – as of now – been cancelled..."
- Euractiv also reports on the latest tentative schedule from the Commission on timings of announcements from 16:30CET (10:30ET, 15:30BST) onwards: "Von der Leyen will hold a presser with Budget Commissioner Serafin on the overall proposal. Executive Vice-President Sejourne on MFF decisions related to competitiveness and defence right after. Followed by Executive Vice-Presidents Minzatu and Fitto and Agriculture Commissioner Hansen on issues related to agriculture, cohesion policy and employment." Will be streamed here.
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US DATA: CARTS Points To Pickup In Ex-Auto Retail Sales
Jun-16 13:23
The Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS)'s final release for May out this morning projects that retail & food services sales excluding motor vehicles & parts (ex. auto) rose 0.3% M/M (SA) in the month.
- While CARTS's ability to forecast previous months has been mixed, their May estimate is in line with analyst consensus for Census Bureau ex-auto retail sales to rise 0.2% in May (after 0.1% in April) in Tuesday's print.
- CARTS estimates ex-auto retail sales rose even faster when adjusted for inflation: 0.4% (the price level for this basket dipped very slightly in May vs April).
- We'll publish a wider preview of Tuesday's retail sales release later today.
USD: Testing Broader lows now
Jun-16 13:21
- A purely Dollar led move in FX, with broader offers emerging against the Greenback.
- US Equities and Yields have not moved, but it is a fresh intraday low for the USD against the AUD, EUR, GBP, JPY, CAD, SGD, and CZK.
- Next immediate resistance for Cable, comes at 1.3624 High Jun 12.
CANADA DATA: Canadian May Home Sales Show First Gain Since Nov
Jun-16 13:16
- Sales +3.6% MOM in May driven by Toronto, Calgary and Ottawa.
- Sales -4.3% YOY, Canadian Real Estate Association says Monday.
- Average resale price -1.8% YOY. Price index -3.5% YOY and -0.2% MOM.
- "Maybe the expected turnaround in housing activity this year was just delayed for a few months by the initial tariff chaos," said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist.
- BOC cut rates seven times between last June and March, which some analysts said could boost sales. High prices have also been cited as a barrier to first-time buyers.
