EU BASIC INDUSTRIES: BASIC INDUSTRIES: European Chemicals: Mid BBB 2H Performance
Dec-04 16:29
- Again, ratings have played a role in relative performance so far for 2H.
- Akzo Nobel’s outlook negative from S&P seems to have held spreads slightly wider than peers.
- Brenntag started wide and has seen beta compression.
- Arkema has been in-line.
- Despite starting relatively tight Evonik has also outperformed, underpinned by solid fundamentals while peers have struggled. The 28s remain special.
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CANADA: USDCAD Rally Falters After Friday’s Fresh Cycle High
Nov-04 16:21
- USDCAD has pulled back to under 1.3900 today after Friday’s fresh cycle high of 1.3959 following clearance of key resistance at 1.3946 (Aug 5 high).
- The trend outlook is bullish, having opened a key medium-term resistance at 1.3977 (Oct 13, 2022 high), but there is still some space before support at 1.3814 (20-day EMA) despite today’s tilt lower.
- The pullback for the pair sees it no longer in overbought territory, broadly overbought since Oct 21, but futures positioning at least indicatively suggests very large CAD net shorts are still in place heading into the US election.
- Friday’s CFTC data showed yet another build in CAD net shorts, climbing from 46% to 51% of open interest. It draws close to the historically large 56% in late July/early Aug via 27% in mid-Sep.
- Beyond the election, the Fed is clearly another major event risk on Thursday. Domestic factors could take a backseat, with Senior Dep Gov Rogers speaking on Wed before CAD jobs on Fri.
- There is another jobs report (Dec 6) before the Dec 11 BoC decision, with pricing still split between a second 50bp BoC cut in December or a reversion to a 25bp clip.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: MNI INTERVIEW: Fed To Pause, Take Stock Early 2025 -Lockhart
Nov-04 16:18
Former Atlanta Fed president discusses the outlook for monetary policy.- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
UK DMO UPDATE: UK DMO UPDATE: Syndication thoughts: MNI expectations
Nov-04 16:17
- January: Long conventional 15-25 year maturity. We pencil in 21 January (correction from earlier bullet that said 19 January). There is a chance that this is a tap of the 4.375% Jan-40 gilt before it moves into the medium-dated bucket. There is scope for a new 20-year gilt to be launched (given the 4.75% Oct-43 gilt has reached benchmark size). We also note that there is a maturity gap in the curve in the 24-year area between the 1.50% Jul-47 gilt and the 1.75% Jan-49 gilt (with neither of these gilts current coupon either). Plenty of scope for this remaining syndication to be upsized from the GBP4.5bln pencilled in by the DMO.
- February: New medium conventional. No maturity given but MNI looks for 10-year. We look for 11 February. The DMO has pencilled in a GBP8.5bln size. This is the same amount as was pencilled into the March remit, but the June transaction saw a size of GBP11.0bln nominal (GBP10.9bln cash). So there is a good chance that this syndication is also upsized.
- February: 15-25 year linker: We pencil in 25/26 February. There are no linkers maturing in 2043 (which would be around 18.5 years to maturity at launch) or in 2049 (around 24.5 years to maturity).
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