EU BASIC INDUSTRIES: BASF (BASGR A3/A-/A): 4Q24 Results
Feb-28 07:47
Slightly soft outlook but probably not market moving. The credit should start to improve from 2026 as sizeable capex eases and contribution from new capacity feeds through.
- BASF released preliminary revenue, adj. EBITDA and FCF in late January, which were confirmed here.
- Reported leverage stood at 2.4x, up from 2.1x YoY (above 3x adjusted).
- FY25 EBITDA guidance is 2% below consensus at midpoint, with a marginal uptick on last year. FCF guidance of €400-800mn is below expectations of €1bn. Capex remains elevated due to Zhanjiang Verbund but will start to ease after this year.
- Webcast 08.30 GMT https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/sk5xyqfb/.
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STIR: Just Over 70bp Of BoE Cuts Priced For '25, Reeves Due
Jan-29 07:45
A bid in core global FI markets filters into GBP STIRs.
- No clear driver. Increased French political risk apparent, but OATs have been unreactive to the news.
- European earnings set the tone in early equity futures trade, as detailed earlier.
- BoE-dated OIS flat to a couple of bp more dovish on the day, showing ~71bp of cuts through ’25.
- SONIA futures flat to +3.0.
- Comments from UK Chancellor Reeves due from just after 10:00. We provided greater colour in an earlier bullet. It is unlikely to be a market moving speech based on the already-released excerpts.
- As a result, macro and cross-market cues will be eyed today, with the UK data calendar subdued through the end of the week.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Feb-25 | 4.474 | -22.7 |
Mar-25 | 4.424 | -27.7 |
May-25 | 4.275 | -42.5 |
Jun-25 | 4.214 | -48.6 |
Aug-25 | 4.105 | -59.5 |
Sep-25 | 4.077 | -62.3 |
Nov-25 | 4.014 | -68.6 |
Dec-25 | 3.994 | -70.6 |
EUR: Some selling interest going through
Jan-29 07:45
- Some early selling going through in the EUR, while the EURUSD is still sticking to a fairly tight early range, the Currency tests broader lows, versus the CAD, CHF, GBP, CNH, JPY, the move looks to be more EUR led than the Dollar.
- Closest tech level is in the EURGBP, with support eyed at 0.8357 50-day EMA.
US TSY OPTIONS: Light TY Put Flow Seen
Jan-29 07:42
Some light put flow in early London trade:
- TYH5 108.00 puts paper paid 0-16 on 2.0K, lifting a small offer to leave the market 0-15/17 on the follow.
- TYJ5 106.00 puts ~3.8K lots given at 0-10.
