ISRAEL: Base Rate Unchanged at 4.50%, as Expected

• We will also be watching this week to see whether the dates of the Autumn Budget is announced. We think that 5 November is the most likely date but we think that there is a chance it comes the preceding week on 29 October, see UK FISCAL: When could the UK Budget Be, 3 July.
• Pensions have continued to remain in the news after the government revived the Pensions Commission with the pension age to again be put under review but it is also likely that auto enrolment and employers’ contributions will make it on to the agenda again in coming months; there was talk that this would appear in the Chancellor’s Mansion House speech but that was not the case in the end.
• Today also sees the BOE conduct a long-dated APF operation. This will be watched closely as the first long-dated APF operation since January (after the April maturity was switched) and will be seen as the strongest gauge of long-end demand in some time.

See the full MNI Gilt Week Ahead for auction previews, BOE balance sheet tracker, projected gilt market cash flows and issuance calendars / results.

• Last week’s data were a little stronger than expected and although an August cut is still generally expected by both the market and sell side analysts, September is widely expected to be off the table (see our full data insight here).
• The data in the week ahead is not expected to really challenge that narrative with the highlight being the flash PMI data due for release on Thursday.
• There are a number of other releases due this week that are worth watching with public finance data due on Tuesday, Brightmine pay data in the early hours of Wednesday, GfK consumer confidence data the early hours of Friday and then finally retail sales to conclude the week later Friday morning.
• There is only one scheduled appearance from an MPC member ahead of the August MPR – and that will come from Governor Bailey as he testifies with other FPC members ahead of the Treasury Select Committee with regards to the Financial Stability Report. It is likely that he will at some point be asked a question on monetary policy and we will be closely watching how much of a response he gives. He may prefer to state that he will address monetary policy matters at another hearing, but he may well welcome the opportunity to say a few words about the recent inflation and labour market data.
• Possibly more likely may be that Governor Bailey would discuss a little on the APF and state again that the decision will be different this year to last year (see more on our analysis for that here).