EU CONSUMER STAPLES: Barry Callebaut; 3Q (to May) results (x4)
Jul-10 15:54
(BARY; Baa3 Neg/BBB- Neg)
On bond levels:
- The 29s are too tight relative to step protected 28s/31s.
- For 31s you will need a downgrade within the next month to receive a stepped coupon in Year-2 (coupons are annual in Mid-Aug).
- The 28s have more time given coupons annual in Mid-Feb.
- In terms of curve moves, the 29/31s spread is the most interesting. It is at +15bps for ~2 years which is normal for IG F&B curves. That means your downside is protected if Cocoa falls/rating stabilises (curve will likely not steepen further), while there is ample flattening/outperformance of 31s if ratings get downgraded.
We see 28s as fair (skewed to rally if Cocoa falls).
No firm view on 31s in isolation but we do see it set comfortably to outperform the 29s.
We still see Cocoa prices as in the driver seat for this credit story; {QC1 Comdty}.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Jun-10 15:54
- EUR/USD: Jun12 $1.1350(E1.9bln), $1.1395-00(E1.3bln), $1.1425-35(E1.4bln), $1.1440-50(E2.6bln), $1.1500(E2.2bln); Jun13 $1.1400-05(E1.7bln), $1.1485-00(E1.9bln); Jun16 $1.1400(E1.2bln)
- USD/JPY: Jun12 Y143.00($1.3bln), Y143.85-00($1.0bln); Jun13 Y144.00($1.2bln); Jun16 Y145.00($4.4bln)
- AUD/USD: Jun12 $0.6475-85(A$1.1bln)
UK: POLITICAL RISK - Spending Review 2025
Jun-10 15:47
Download Full Report Here
MNI's Political Risk team has published an article looking at the political implications of tomorrow's Spending Review, particularly in the context of the Labour government's challenge from the right-wing populist Reform UK in opinion polls.
US STOCKS: Morning Equities Roundup: Looking for Progress in US/China Trade
Jun-10 15:43
- Stocks are holding mildly mixed levels by midmorning Tuesday, off recent highs as US/China trade talks concluded in London without signs of progress. Indexes posted relatively modest volumes as investors also await Wednesday's CPI inflation data.
- A recent dip in prices could also be associated with headlines that Pres Trump told Fox News that "Iran is becoming "much more aggressive" in nuclear talks. Currently, the DJIA trades up 6.19 points (0.01%) at 42768.02, S&P E-Minis up 7.25 points (0.12%) at 6017.75, Nasdaq down 0.3 points (0%) at 19591.74.
- Energy and Communication Services led gainers in the first half, the former buoyed by Enphase Energy +6.38%, APA Corp +5.74%, Halliburton +4.67%, LyondellBasell Industries +4.19% and Schlumberger +4.13%. Interactive media shares supported the Communication Services sector: Charter Communications +2.79%, Interpublic Group +2.51%, Alphabet +2.01%, Warner Bros Discovery +1.78% and Walt Disney Co +1.74%.
- Industrials and Utilities underperformed in the first half, the former weighed by GE Vernova -3.23%, Axon Enterprise -3.17%, General Electric -3.09% and Quanta Services -3.01%. Laggers in the Utility sector include: Vistra -4.52%, NRG Energy -2.97%, Constellation Energy -2.89%, Entergy -1.14% and CenterPoint Energy -0.85%.
