US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Barclays At Top End Of Consensus For CPI

• RES 4: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 3: 1.3925 High Aug 22 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: 1.3890 High Sep 11
• RES 1: 1.3848 High Sep 15 
• PRICE: 1.3817 @ 19:32 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger  
• SUP 2: 1.3709 61.8% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 1.3658 76.4% retracement of the Jul 23 - Aug 22 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 1.3637 Low Jul 25  

A sharp sell-off in USDCAD early last week resulted in a break of the 20-and-50-day EMAs. This undermines a recent bullish theme and exposes key short-term support at 1.3727, the Aug 27 low. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, resistance levels to watch are; 1.3890, the Sep 11 high, and 1.3925, the Aug 22 high and bull trigger.

• Treasuries reversed early support after comments from Fed Bostic: sees little reason for additional rate cuts "for now", labor market "not in crisis": "forecasting is really hard these days and so I still have one cut down for the year. So that would be it."
• StL Fed Musalem: "I believe there is limited room for easing further without policy becoming overly accommodative, and we should tread cautiously," Musalem said in prepared remarks for an event at the Brookings Institution.
• Conversely, new Fed Governor Miran (Mr. Low Dot) unsurprisingly argues for significantly lower policy interest rates (2-2.5% "ballpark) in his first prepared remarks since being appointed to the Board, calling current rates "very restrictive".
• Projected rate cut pricing cooled slightly vs. early morning levels (*): Oct'25 at -22.3bp (-22.9bp), Dec'25 at -43.1bp (-44.6bp), Jan'26 at -54.1bp (-56.2bp), Mar'26 at -66bp (-69.1bp).
• Currently, the Dec'25 10Y trades -2.5 at 112-21.5 (yld 4.1467% +.0193) vs. 112-21.5 low, modest volumes (TYZ5 1.03M); technical resistance well above at 113-29 (High Sep 11 and the bull trigger); Support at 112-15+ (High Aug 5 and 14). Curves mixed: 2s10s -1.430 at 53.948, 5s30s +0.067 at 106.406.
• Look ahead to Tuesday's session: S&P Global flash PMIs, Current Account Balance and regional Fed data. Fed Chair Powell speaks about the economy at 1235ET after Bowman's outlook (0900ET) and Bostic podcast (1000ET).

• RES 3: 140.08 High Jun 13  
• RES 2: 139.05 High Aug 4 
• RES 1: 137.30 - High Sep 8 asnd key short-term resistance
• PRICE: 135.97 @ 19:08 BST Sep 22
• SUP 1: 135.76 - Low Sep 22 
• SUP 2: 135.39 - 1.618 proj of the Aug 4 - Sep 2 - Sep 8 price swing
• SUP 3: 134.69 - 2.000 proj of the Aug 4 - Sep 2 - Sep 8 price swing  

A bear threat in JGB futures remains present and the contract has pulled back from its recent highs. The latest sell-off has also resulted in a break of support at 136.19, the Sep 4 low and a bear trigger. Clearance of this level confirms a resumption of the downtrend and opens 135.39 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 137.30, the Sep 8 high.