LATIN AMERICA: Barbados: IMF Board Review - Positive
(B2/Bpos/B+)
"IMF Executive Board Concludes the Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility with Barbados"
Ahead of a potential refinancing in the international market next week it is useful to know what the IMF said in its latest review under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF).
The IMF will disburse USD19mn under the EFF and USD39mn under the RSF. Both facilities expire December 2025 so this was the fifth and final review.
The IMF appeared to be pleased with accomplishing its broad objectives and commented that the economy has performed well with robust growth, improving inflation, a better fiscal position and a lower debt-to-GDP ratio.
The IMF projected 3% real GDP growth and 2% consumer price inflation for 2025.
Moody's upgraded the Barbados credit rating to B2 April 14, 2025.
BARBAD 2029 notes were last quoted USD98.89, yielding 7.06%. The government announced a debt tender for any and all 2029 notes subject to a successful issuance of new notes in the international market.
We note that bonds were quoted at USD98.12 on June 12th, prior to the debt tender announcement, which was a yield of 7.43%.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Signals Point North
- RES 4: 0.5682 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6528 High Nov 29 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6515 High May 7
- PRICE: 0.6465 @ 16:18 BST May 21
- SUP 1: 0.6362 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 3: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
- SUP 4: 0.6116 Low Apr 10
AUDUSD traded higher into the close, and has largely reversed the RBA-tripped weakness seen into the Tuesday close. This keeps the trend condition bullish and the May 13 rally signals the end of the recent corrective pullback. Attention is on key resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting an uptrend. A resumption of the trend would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement. Key support lies at 0.6362, the 50-day EMA.
US TSYS: Late SOFR/Treasury Option Roundup: Better Puts as Yields Rise
Aside from a large scale buyer of Jun'25 SOFR calls, flow leaned towards low delta put structures Wednesday as underlying futures weaker, near lows while projected rate cut pricing drifts near early morning levels (*) as follows: Jun'25 at -1.4bp (-0.5bp), Jul'25 at -7bp (-6.7bp), Sep'25 at -20.8bp (-19.6bp), Oct'25 at -33.5bp (-33.7bp), Dec'25 at -50.6bp (-50.7bp).
- SOFR Options:
- over +100,000 SFRM5 96.50 calls, 0.5
- -4,000 SFRZ5 95.87/96.00 put spds, 5.75
- +3,000 0QX5 96.00 puts, 10.5 ref 96.62
- +20,000 SFRZ5 95.37/95.62 put spds, 1.5 ref 96.17
- -6,000 SFRU5 95.81 / SFRZ5 95.68 put spds, 5.0 net/Sep over
- -2,500 SFRM5 95.75 puts, 8.25 ref 95.68
- +4,000 0QM5 96.25 puts, 2.5 vs. 96.53
- -2,000 2QZ5 95.75/97.25 strangles, 20.75 ref 96.43
- Block 5,000 SFRU5 96.12/96.37 call spds, 3.5 ref 95.89
- 1,900 SFRM5 95.68/95.75/95.81 call flys ref 95.68
- 2,600 SFRM5 95.75/95.87 2x1 put spds ref 95.68
- +6,000 SFRM5 95.68 puts, 2.5
- 2,000 SFRM5 95.75 put vs. 0QN5 96.12 put, 0.5 net flattener
- +1,000 SFRM5 95.50/95.68 2x1 put spds cab
- +5,000 0QM5 96.12 puts, 1.0 vs. 96.575 to -.58/0.05%
- -2,000 2QN5 96.43 puts, 14.5 vs. 96.50/0.44%
- Treasury Options:
- 11,491 TYN5 100/108.5/110 broken put flys ref 109-28
- 3,800 FVU5 106.25/107.5 2x1 put spds ref 107-18.75
- 2,000 FVM5 107.5/107.75 call spds 6 ref 107-16.5
- +25,000 TYN5 111.5 calls, 18 vs. 109-28/0.20%, appr 6.78% vol (total volume over 58k on day
- -3,500 TYN5 110 straddles, 143, appr 6.63% vol
- 1,250 USM5 112/USN5 109 put spds
- 20,000 TYM5 110.5/111 call spds, 2 ref 109-29
- over 3,300 USN5 109 puts, 50 ref 111-19
- +8,000 TYM5 111/112/113 call flys, 1.0
- (another 3k TYM5 112 calls, 1 ref 109-30)
- +5,000 TYM5 109.5 puts, 6
- +3,000 TYU5 107.5 puts, 41-42
- +3,000 FVM5 108 calls, 2
EURJPY TECHS: Key Support Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 / High Nov 8 2024
- RES 1: 164.07 High May 15
- PRICE: 162.99 @ 16:17 GMT May 21
- SUP 1: 162.28/15 50-day EMA / Low May 19
- SUP 2: 161.60 Low May 6
- SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22
- SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9
EURJPY maintains a bearish tone following the pullback from its recent high and is trading closer to its latest lows. Recent weakness is considered corrective. However, the cross has tested a key support at 162.28, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would undermine a bearish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the bull trigger at 165.21, the May 13 high.
