TURKEY: Banks Cut Deposit Rates in Anticipation of Further CBRT Easing
- Ekonomi note that some local banks reduced deposit rates by 200bps at the start of the week in anticipation of a 200bp rate cut from the CBRT on Thursday. The newspaper also notes that rates on some 1-month deposits have fallen below the 40% mark.
- Turkey's seasonally and calendar adjusted industrial production fell 1.8% m/m in July versus revised +0.8% in June, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute. On an annual basis, industrial production rose 5.0% compared to a revised +8.5% prior.
- Turkey’s Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said state-run gas company Botas signed LNG deals with European energy majors BP Plc, Shell Plc and Eni SpA and agreed to boost work with China and Oman on trading and transport of the supercooled fuel. Bloomberg say the agreements are the latest in a string of LNG deals in the past two years as Turkey seeks to diversify an import mix that’s long been dominated by pipeline volumes from Russia.
- Turkey’s new 10-year USD benchmark was priced, with $2bln sold to yield 7% (IPT: 7.3%A, EM Credit Team FV: 6.875%). Full analysis from our EM Credit Team here.
- No other data releases are scheduled today, with focus turning to the CBRT rate decision tomorrow afternoon. Our full preview, with sell-side views, can be found here.
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Historical bullets
WTI TECHS: (U5) Pierces Bear Trigger
- RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
- RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $70.96/75.98 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-24 downleg / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $63.15 @ 08:13 BST Aug 11
- SUP 1: $62.77 - Low Aug 11
- SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
WTI futures traded poorly Friday, cracking the 50-day EMA and piercing the bear trigger. This keeps S/T momentum pointed lower. The clear break exposes $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg - an important level at the close. A continuation higher would open $70.96 next, the 61.8% retracement point.
BRENT TECHS: (V5) Fresh Lows
- RES 4: $83.02 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 3: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 2: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
- RES 1: $72.89/77.73 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-30 downleg / High Jun 23
- PRICE: $65.99 @ 08:12 BST Aug 11
- SUP 1: $65.53/65.06 - Low Aug 8 / Jun 30
- SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
- SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
- SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
Weakness across Brent futures persists, with fresh pullback lows printed Friday. This extends the spell of weakness posted off the break of $71.40, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 50 downleg. A further reversal would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at $65.06, the Jun 30 low. A break of this level would resume the recent bearish theme. The next resistance to watch remains $72.89, the 61.8% retracement point.
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Bounce Holds
- RES 4: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 3: 6500.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6468.50 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6427.75 @ 08:08 BST Aug 11
- SUP 1: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
- SUP 2: 6238.83 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
- SUP 3: 6216.34 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 6213.75 50% retracement of Jun - Aug Upleg
Prices recovered well Friday, meaning the bulk of the bounce off the NFP low is holding firm, keeping the underlying uptrend intact for now. The index holds above support at the 20-day EMA, at 6343.83. Through recent phases of weakness, the 50-day EMA at 6224.07, has held as support - and will be important on any intraday declines. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. The primary trend remains up, leaving key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 6468.50, the Jul 31 high.
