SWAPS: Bank of America Recommend Short 1y & Long 2y3y U.S. Inflation Swaps

Sequentially, SA services prices rose 0.27% M/M - almost in line with the 0.29% M/M average seen since December.

• In annualized terms, this would mean a current services pace of around 3.5%. Although annual NSA services inflation was slightly weaker-than-expected at 3.42% Y/Y (vs 3.5% MNI consensus, 3.68% prior), the seasonally adjusted data suggests that underlying price pressures still remain elevated.
• Eurozone services inflation momentum rose to 3.23% on a 3m/3m seasonally adjusted and annualised basis (using ECB data), the second consecutive increase after an eight-month streak of decelerations - underscoring questions some analysts had raised before on residual seasonality in the data. Momentum rose last Spring, too.
• For hawkish ECB policymakers (nowadays led by Executive Board member Schnabel), this development will underscore the need for a more cautious approach to policy further ahead - especially if the governing council goes ahead with an April cut, as appears to be markets' base case as of now.
• Non-energy industrial goods momentum ticked up to 0.75% (vs 0.68% prior), with sequential prices flat M/M (vs 0.12% prior).
• Taken together, this left core inflation momentum at 2.34% (vs 2.22% Feb, 1.85% Jan).    

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Johnson Redbook Retail Sales were up 5.3% Y/Y in March month-to-date (as of the week ending March 29), after sales in the 4th week of the month slowed to 4.8% Y/Y (5.6% prior).

• The apparent dip in retail activity at the end of the month requires some context: last year saw pre-Easter shopping, which hurts the Y/Y comparisons this year, but "these differences are expected to balance out in April as Easter sales begin, leading to improved growth rates compared to last year's retail performance in April. Most retailers recommend smoothing the Easter distortion by averaging the performance data from March and April."
• Overall we consider this to be solid "hard" retail data, with the Johnson Redbook report covering around 80% of "official" retail sales (March data for which is out on Apr 16). 

• MNI: US REDBOOK: MAR STORE SALES +5.3% V YR AGO MO
• US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +4.8% WK ENDED MAR 29 V YR AGO WK