EM ASIA CREDIT: Bank Negara Indonesia: Cash injection approved

• RES 4: $83.02 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.89/77.73 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-30 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $66.12 @ 07:50 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: $65.53/65.06 - Low Aug 8 / Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Weakness across Brent futures persists, with fresh pullback lows printed Friday. This extends the spell of weakness posted off the break of $71.40, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 50 downleg. A further reversal would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at $65.06, the Jun 30 low. A break of this level would resume the recent bearish theme. The next resistance to watch remains $72.89, the 61.8% retracement point. 

GBP STIR pricing little changed this morning, following yesterday’s hawkish adjustment in the wake of the domestic labour market data.

• A reminder that the data pointed to a slightly less downbeat picture on the quantity side, while wage growth measures were broadly in line with expectations.
• BoE-dated OIS shows no movement for September, 10bp of easing through November, 16bp through year-end and 26bp through the February ’26 MPC.
• SONIA futures flat to +1.0.
• Prior August lows in SFIZ5 and SFIZ6 remain untouched despite yesterday’s hawkish adjustment.
• Fiscal issues continue to dominate local headlines. Guardian sources have reported that “the Treasury is looking at ways to raise more money from inheritance tax amid growing pressure on the country’s finances ahead of the autumn budget”.

• RES 4: $81.12 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $80.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $77.75 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $70.96/75.98 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-24 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $62.97 @ 07:46 BST Aug 13
• SUP 1: $62.77 - Low Aug 11
• SUP 2: $58.17 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.66 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.01 - Low Apr 9 and a key support  

WTI futures traded poorly Friday, cracking the 50-day EMA and piercing the bear trigger. Markets have built on this S/T momentum lower, with support under pressure into 62.77. A clear break here exposes $58.17, the May 30 low. Gains early last week marked an extension of a corrective cycle - which may now have concluded to result in cleaner positioning. $69.41 marks the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23-24 downleg - an important level on any recovery from here.