EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Bank Muscat SAOG: 9M Earnings Prelim. Neutral take
(BKMBOM; Baa3/BBB-/BB+pos)
#MNI #Banks #EM #GCC
• Oman’s Bank Muscat posted prelim. 9M results: solid read, credit neutral. Full results due out following board approval later in the month. In secondary markets, recently launched BKMBOM 4.8 Oct30 chart at z+155bp, near the local highs.
• NII&F +5.9% y/y at OMR310.90mn, boosted by stronger +12.0% y/y Other Income at OMR123.57mn. Op. Profit +8.8% at OMR271.65mn on contained expenses +5.3% y/y, leaves Net Profit +12.2% y/y.
• Asset growth looks adequate, Total Assets +3.6% y/y at OMR14.5bn, sequentially consistent quarterly growth with lending sustained by deposits (LtD 104.7% YE24). Marginally lower y/y Impairments at OMR43.63mn. NPL ratio has been showing stable quarterly evolution in recent years (was 3.67% as of Q2).
• Ratings reflect a low triple-B stance at both Moody’s and S&P. Fitch’s cites better than peer profitability and asset quality, with BB+ ratings on positive outlook.
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EUROZONE DATA: Soft Imports Take Some Of The Edge Off A Solid June [2/2]
- The modest widening in the surplus came as imports (-0.8% M/M) fell by more than exports (-0.1% M/M).
- It sees imports unwind part of the 3.0% M/M increase in June in what was a rare solid reading compared to recent months.
- An important caveat when it comes to digging into import details for domestic demand implications -- the miscellaneous category again shows a surge but this was revised away last month as these unclassified items are eventually correctly allocated.
- Specifically, the miscellaneous category surged 172% from to E6.8bn in Aug from a typical E2.5bn in July, with the latter initially reported at E7.1bn.
- With that in mind, monthly declines are currently seen as being led by the typically volatile raw materials category (-7.5% M/M) along with manufactured goods (-2.8%) and food, drinks & tobacco (-1.8%).
- We tend to focus on machinery & transport within manufactured goods, and this currently shows a disappointing -2.6% M/M to undo a sizeable part of June’s 4.0% increase. In doing so, it crimped annual growth in this nominal category to just 2.5% Y/Y.
EUROZONE DATA: Trade Data See Further Post Tariff Front-Running Adjustment [1/2]
- The Euro area goods trade surplus surprised lower for the third time in four months, with a seasonally adjusted E5.3bn in July (cons E12.0bn expected) after an upward revised but still low E3.7bn (initial E2.8bn) in June.
- The Bloomberg consensus figure again consisted of only three responses, so we wouldn’t put too much weight on the surprise and instead focus on the direction.
- The trend is one of clear narrowing in surpluses, with an average E4.5bn in Jun/Jul, E15.2bn in Apr/May and E24.3bn in Feb/Mar on peak tariff front-running. For a sense of a more ‘typical’ surplus, it averaged E14.1bn per month through 2024.
- Alternatively, it leaves the latest three-month goods surplus worth approximately 0.6% GDP vs a peak of 1.6% GDP in the spring after an average surplus of 1.1% GDP through 2024.
- The more detailed NSA data show that Irish pharmaceutical exports to the US registered a second small month of E2.4bn after just E1.8bn in June. It's continued payback from a surge in Q1 when exports summed to E39bln vs the E44bln through 2024 as a whole. As such, it may not necessarily be surprising but it's still notable and could see similarly small readings ahead with Jan-Jul exports already worth a cumulative E58.7bn.
