EU FINANCIALS: Banco BPM - Q4 Results
Feb-14 14:19
Amidst a reasonable amount of headline risk, this will likely be an unremarkable quarter for BAMI results wise. Target looks ambitious but will be very credit positive if achieved.
- Net interest income €862m, about 1% lower than Q3 and Q4 23. Fee income Improves marginally to €494m, but doesn’t look to be on an upward trajectory.
- Expenses are €661m which is -3.7% lower than Q3 and -14.4% lower than Q4 23. Again however the trend is roughly flat.
- OpInc is -5.5% on Q3 (€-36m), mostly due to the higher provisions (+€52m) which rise to €160m. The Net income line is slightly messy - but comes in at €225m for the quarter - ahead of expectations and lower on Q3 due to a -€130 contribution to the solidarity fund.
- 2026/2027 targets focus on fee and 'core revenue growth' - which is to say everything that isn't net interest income. Would boost RoTE from 16% in 2024 to >24% in 2027. This would be industry leading and as a result look quite ambitious.
- As a result of the 80% payout ratio - retained earnings through 2027 would only generate +146bps of CET1, with another +121bps coming from deferred tax assets. RWA growth and regulatory headwinds -142 and -94bps respectively. This would result in 1% CET1 growth through 2027 to 16% - after which a €1bn share buyback would reduce this to 14.4%.
- Upcoming maturities in 2025, 2026, 2027 in €bn
- AT1 calls - 0.22, 0.4, 0.3
- Tier 2 - 0.5, 0.65, 0.4
- Sr Non Pref - 0.75, 0.5, 1.25
- Sr Pref - 0.5, 1.12, 1.25
Link to call at 8.00am UK Time - https://gruppo.bancobpm.it/en/investor-relations/presentations/
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
STIR: 95bps of ECB Cuts Priced Through Year-end Post US CPI
Jan-15 14:18
ECB-dated OIS are up to 5bps more dovish through the blues following the softer-than-expected US CPI report, with 96bps of cuts now priced through year-end.
- 25bp cuts remain essentially fully priced for the January and March meetings, with 15bps of sequential easing priced through into April and March respectively.
- Euribor futures are +3.0 to +12.0 ticks through the blues, with the greens leading.
- ERZ5 has retraced all of this week’s sell-off, currently +7.5 ticks at 97.90.
- The MNI Policy Team’s latest sources piece assesses the inflationary risks stemming from recent gas price increases.
- Tomorrow’s regional data calendar includes final December CPI from Germany and Italy and Eurozone trade balance data for November. The accounts of the ECB’s December meeting are also due.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.672 | -24.7 |
| Mar-25 | 2.432 | -48.8 |
| Apr-25 | 2.282 | -63.7 |
| Jun-25 | 2.136 | -78.3 |
| Jul-25 | 2.086 | -83.3 |
| Sep-25 | 2.014 | -90.6 |
| Oct-25 | 1.994 | -92.5 |
| Dec-25 | 1.963 | -95.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
EQUITIES: Emini sees its biggest single move since December
Jan-15 14:13
- The US Emini (ESH5) is seeing is single biggest since the last Core PCE on the 20th December and the last FOMC from the 18th December.
- The contract has fully cleared pre NFP levels, and now sees the next upside resistance at 5987.43 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance.
- There'll be some decent focus on the Cash open in just over 15 minutes, and look out for potential Program orders.
GILTS: Rally Extends On U.S. CPI
Jan-15 14:11
Gilts comfortably through initial resistance at 90.31, printing as high as 90.88 in the wake of the U.S. CPI data, building on the bullish move that followed this morning’s domestic CPI print.
- Next resistance at the January 8 high (91.58).
- Yields 12-16bp lower, curve bull steepens.
- 10s now 19.5bp off cycle highs, set for the biggest intraday fall since December ’23. Gilt bulls will want to push the benchmark below the Jan 8 low at 4.659%.
- 30s ~17bp off cycle highs.
- 5s30s off session highs, just below cycle closing highs, last 85.6bp.
