AMERICAS OIL: Baker Hughes North America Rig Count Breakdown by Basin as of 7/25

• Tsy futures retreat slightly (FVU5 to 108-20.75 from 108-21.5 at the cutoff) after the latest $70B 5Y note auction (91282CNK3) tailed: 3.879% high yield vs. 3.872% WI; 2.36x bid-to-cover vs. 2.39x prior (5 auction average).
• Peripheral stats: Indirect take-up retreats to 64.68% from 78.4% prior, directs rebound to 24.44% vs. 12.4% prior (5 auction low), primary dealer take-up at 10.88% vs. 9.2% prior.
• The next 2Y auction is tentatively scheduled for July 28.

• US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 3.879%; ALLOTMENT 6.32%
• US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 10.88% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 24.44% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 5Y NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 64.68% OF COMPETITIVES
• US TSY 5Y AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.36

• RES 4: 1.1783 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1685 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg
• RES 1: 1.1641 High Jun 24
• PRICE: 1.1625 @ 16:24 BST Jun 25
• SUP 1: 1.1472 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1332/1.1210 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 1.1131 Low May 16 
• SUP 4: 1.1065 Low May 12 and a reversal trigger 

The trend set-up in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish. Resistance and a bull trigger at 1.1631, the Jun 12 high,  has been pierced confirming a resumption of the trend. This opens 1.1685, a Fibonacci retracement. Key short-term support to watch lies at 1.1472, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement that would expose the 50-day EMA, at 1.1332.