BOE: Bailey says the BOE added "careful" to add uncertainty:
Feb-06 12:54
- "I want to be clear that you should see gradual and careful together, and you could all you should also see, by the way, from the minutes of the MPC, that there was quite a, quite a debate about the choice of the second word. There wasn't a debate about the choice the first word. Because, as you know, we've been using that for some time... I think we've seen good progress on [persistence], but we continue to use the word gradual, because we continue to have to see that process of disinflation take place... we've added the word careful, deliberately."
- "Let me emphasize... that around that you should see the greater uncertainty that we face in the current environment... that uncertainty is both domestic and global."
- "So the domestic uncertainty... the interpretation of a weaker growth profile and to what extent its demand and to what extent its supply, and underpinning that also, frankly, the different challenges in reading some of the some of the data at the moment, and particularly on the supply side... if you look at the the evolution of the last 12 months, we've had an increase in on the Supply side, we've had an increase in population, I think we've had an increase, therefore in labor supply, we haven't had a change in GDP. Therefore you can only conclude mathematically that productivity has got much worse. And you can see that in the term, because it's actually negative. Now, I think there's a lot of uncertainty around what the true story, what the true position here is... it's one of the reasons why we do think growth is going to pick up, because it would be unusual for that negative situation to remain."
- "There's also global uncertainty... since we're all witnessing it from day to day. So there is... heightened uncertainty. It's two sided, as we've stressed. So, you know, it could lead to conditions which actually make the path of disinflation less assured. It frankly, could also, on the other side, lead to conditions which have the opposite effect, and, you know, lead to it being a faster path for disinflation. ButBut there is more uncertainty. That's why we've paired gradually and careful. Is Ed next?"
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Destatis corrects German HICP Y/Y flash estimate to 2.8%Y/Y
Jan-07 12:54
- Destatis has corrected its calculation for German HICP to 2.8%Y/Y (from yesterday's release of 2.9%Y/Y).
- Note that although this correction is being issued now, it appears as though the Eurostat statistics may have been produced using the correct number (at least we have looked back on a press release from earlier today when Eurostat released EZ HICP which had the German HICP release printed at 2.8%Y/Y in it).
- The full update from Destatis is available here.
EGB SYNDICATION: Slovenia 30-year: Final terms
Jan-07 12:38
- Size: E1bln (MNI expected E1.0-1.5bln)
- Spread set earlier at MS+128bp (Guidance was MS+140bps area then MS+135bps area)
- Books in excess of E2.1bln (inc E410mln JLM interest)
- Maturity Date: 14 April 2055
- Settlement Date: 14 January 2025 (T+5)
- Joint Bookrunners: Deutsche Bank, Erste Group, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE, HSBC, J.P. Morgan (B&D) and OTP Banka Slovenia
- ISIN: SI0002104873
- Timing: Allocations and pricing shortly
From market source
GERMANY: Jean-Marie Le Pen Dead At 96-AFP
Jan-07 12:30
AFP reports that former far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen has died aged 96. Le Pen co-founded the Front National in 1972, with the party's rise under Jean-Marie Le Pen culminating in his shock appearance in the 2002 presidential election run-off against incumbent Jacques Chirac.
- His daughter Marine Le Pen assumed the party leadership in 2012, and has since sought to present a more electable face of the far-right. Jean-Marie Le Pen was defeated by a margin of 82% to 18% in 2002, compared to margins of 66%-34% and 59%-41% in 2017 and 2022 respectively for Marine Le Pen.
- Jean-Marie was expelled from the Front National in 2015 amid a feud with Marine as she attempted to 'detoxify' the party's brand (the party was renamed Rassemblement National in 2018), making Jean-Marie a sidelined figure. As such, his passing is unlikely to have any significant impact on the French political landscape amid continued efforts by the Bayrou gov't to reach agreement with opposition groups on passing a 2025 state budget.
