BOE: Bailey saw the decision as balanced, but we still don't know who else did
May-08 12:45
- Not a huge amount to learn from the press conference, other than that Bailey was one of the members who thought the decision was "finely balanced" between on hold and a 25bp cut.
- The MPC do see tariffs as deflationary - but are very cautious regarding this, more so than most market participants we think. And the MPC is still very concerned on second round effects.
- So we have both April and May inflation data due for release ahead of the next meeting in June. If that comes in soft, we can't completely rule out a sequential cut here - but it looks a lot less likely now than it did ahead of this meeting.
- That probably means that the guidance will remain in place for June, too (dependent upon other global factors of course), with August a live meeting.
- Lombardelli didn't give away whether she saw the decision are finely balanced or not today. And Ramsden said he was concerned about productivity - suggesting he might have seen it as balanced.
- So we still don't have a clear view on which of those members of Greene or Breeden saw a clearer case for a 25bp cut at this particular meeting. We will be watching speeches of all of these members very closely going forward.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Crunch Week For Budget Reconcilliation
Apr-08 12:34
Download Full Report Here
- At 13:00 ET 18:00 BST, White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will deliver her first press conference since Trump’s 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement. President Donald Trump will sign an Executive Order to boost the US coal industry before delivering remarks at the NRCC Dinner at 18:45 ET 23:45 BST.
- The pragmatic wing of the Trump administration - led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent - appears to have gained the upper hand over the trade hawks - led by advisor Peter Navarro and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick. The White House appeared to delete a social media post backing a Navarro op-ed claiming tariffs are "not a negotiation." Shortly after, Bessent confirmed he will lead trade negotiations with Japan.
- Bessent said yesterday that tariffs are going to ‘re-lever’ the private sector, pay for Trump’s tax agenda, and bolster national security.
- Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff on China that could hike duties on Chinese imports to 104% (20% Fentanyl, 34% reciprocal, 50% counter-retaliatory).
- USTR Jamieson Greer's testimony to the Senate on Trump's trade agenda will be the most watched event on Capitol Hill today.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is facing a rebellion from deficit hawks and his Budget Committee chair over the Senate's reconciliation budget blueprint.
- The US will hold indirect talks with Iran on its nuclear programme on Saturday.
- Poll of the Day: Consumer sentiment registered an 8-point swing from April 5.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
EQUITIES: EU Bank put spread
Apr-08 12:32
SX7E (17th Apr) 144/135ps, bought 0.55 in 20k.
JPY: FX Exchange traded Option
Apr-08 12:26
FX Exchange traded Option, looking for Yen Weakness.
- JPYUSD (8th Aug) 73c, sold at 0.79 in 1.5k.
