US TSYS: Back Close To Post-CPI Highs, Fedspeak and Trump Watched

SFIZ5 97.15/98.00 call spread paper paid 1 on 7K.

• On the commodity front, the bull cycle in Gold that started Jun 30, remains intact and the yellow metal is holding on to its recent gains. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. An extension would expose $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, and $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. On the downside, the bear trigger is $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. First support to watch is 3282.8, the Jul 9 low.
• In the oil space, WTI futures are trading higher today. Despite these gains, a bear threat remains present and the latest move higher appears corrective. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.39. The average has been pierced, a resumption of weakness and a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would expose $58.87, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to monitor is $71.20, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 24 high-low range.

OI data points to net short setting in TU, FV & WN futures on Friday, which outweighed net long cover across TY, UXY & US futures.

• A reminder that futures sold off on feedthrough from hawkish CAD rate repricing that followed local labour market data and as swap spreads tightened (some linked the latter to setup for this week's IG supply).