BUNDS: Back above 1%
May-04 06:15
- A light overnight session for Bund, quoted 2 ticks wide, with desks awaiting of the FOMC, and could be an interesting presser.
- Nonetheless, the contract is back above the 1% mark in yields.
- Yesterday, ECB Schnabel (Voter, leaning Hawk): "A rate hike in July is possible".
- Euribor red strip is down 10 ticks.
- Main next target in Yield is the 2015 peak at 1.057%, which equates to circa 152.17.
- ALL EYES are on the FOMC, in terms of data, sees Services PMIs, but final reading for France, Germany, EU and the US.
- US ADP is also scheduled, but very little correlation for the NFP on Friday.
- SUPPLY: German 2031 EU1.5bn (Equates to just 9.5K), should have limited impact on the contract.
- EARNING: Today includes, Moderna, Marathon Oil corp, and after markets, EBay.
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RUSSIA: Russia-Ukraine Talks Resume Via Video-Call, Territorial Claims Remain the Sticking Point
Apr-04 06:00
- Today’s focus will be on Russia-Ukraine talks being held by video-call.
- Crimea & Separatist territories remain the key sticking point holding up a potential Zelensky-Putin meeting, that could take place in the coming weeks if sides are able to formulate a written agreement/framework.
- Russia’ however, will likely want to secure Mariupol and its land bridge before reaching this stage to fortify its bargaining position for more territory – which could slow progress somewhat.
- Both sides seem to be converging in talks with neutrality and NATO discussions agreed upon.
RUSSIA: Kremlin Says Zelensky-Putin Meeting Possible When Written Agreement is Drafted
Apr-04 05:58
LOCAL NEWS (1/2)
- Kremlin says Zelensky-Putin meeting is possible only when a prepared written agreement has been drafted first. Peskov says Putin has never rejected a meeting. Ukraine’s negotiator said that Russia indicated that talks were advanced enough to consider a putin-Zelensky meeting, but Russian downplayed this.
- Russian negotiator Medinsky says although the Ukrainian side has become more realistic on neutrality and non-nuclear status both sides are still not at the draft agreement stage. Talks are set to resume today with the status of Crimea & Donbass the key sticking points - Tass, IFX
- Russia continued to reorient its forces over the weekend, pulling back from Kyiv and focusing its efforts on the south and southeast. Missile strikes and heavy fighting continued in Mariupol with Ukrainian troops maintaining control in central areas holding off Russian attempts to secure its land bridge.
- Strikes also hit Odesa overnight in signs of Russia’s increased southern focus with Crimea, the land bridge & separatist republics being Russia’s primary objectives now.
- Head of Ukraine’s Donetsk region called on people to evacuate due to military escalation threat. Blasts were heard in the Russian city of Belogrod on Sunday with Ukrainian forces again hitting fuel depots in Russian territory - RTRS, Sky, BBG
USDCAD TECHS: Bearish Outlook
Apr-04 05:57
- RES 4: 1.2778 High Mar 16
- RES 3: 1.2699 High Mar 17
- RES 2: 1.2649 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2593 High Mar 28 and the 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.2506 @ 06:56 GMT Apr 4
- SUP 1: 1.2430 Low Mar 30
- SUP 2: 1.2400 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 1.2387 Low Nov 10 2021
- SUP 4: 1.2328 Low Oct 29 2021
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows and remains vulnerable. The pair has traded below 1.2451 - the Jan 19 low. This has reinforced bearish conditions and extends the downtick triggered by the recent break of 1.2552, 76.4% of the Jan 19 - Feb 24 rally. The break lower opens 1.2387 initially ahead of 1.2328. On the upside, initial firm resistance is seen at 1.2593, the 20-day EMA. A break of this average would ease bearish pressure.
