CZECHIA: Babiš To Become PM On Dec 9, CPI & Wages Undershoot Forecasts
- ANO leader Andrej Babiš announced that he would leave Agrofert and sever all personal ties with the company to meet President Petr Pavel's demand that he resolves his potential conflict of interest before becoming Prime Minister. The holding will be placed under an independent trustee and transferred to Babiš's children after his death. Following this declaration, President Pavel said that he would appoint Babiš as Prime Minister on Tuesday (December 9), removing the key stumbling block on the way to the formation of a new government.
- It was unclear how the President intended to handle the nomination of Filip Turek, the controversial honorary chairman of the Motorists' party, to the position of Environment Minister. However, Deník N reported that Motorists leader Petr Macinka 'only mentioned [Turek] when he was leaving' a meeting with Pavel, which suggested he didn't insist on his appointment.
- Some have suggested that the timing of Babiš's announcement might have something to do with the December 18 European Council summit, where he would like to use to symbolically demonstrate that he is 'back in the game'.
- Preliminary CPI data showed that headline inflation eased to +2.1% Y/Y in November from +2.5% prior, missing the consensus forecast of +2.5%. Meanwhile, average real wage growth slowed to +4.5% Y/Y, printing marginally below Bloomberg median estimate of +4.6% Y/Y but marginally above the CNB's +4.4% Y/Y projection.
- The CZSO will publish October retail sales data at the top of the hour (08:00GMT/09:00CET).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (Z5) Trades Through The 20-day EMA
- RES 4: 7000.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 6993.12 3.500 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 2: 6974.04 3.382 proj of the Aug 20 - 28 - Sep 2 price swing
- RES 1: 6953.75 High Oct 30 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 6789.25 @ 07:25 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1:6748.50 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 6702.18 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 6690.75 Low Oct 22
- SUP 4: 6571.25 Low Oct 17
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 6803.81, has been breached. A clear break of this average signals scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the 50-day EMA at 6702.18 - a key pivot support. The bull trigger has been defined at 6953.75, the Oct 30 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend.
WTI TECHS: (Z5) Short-Term Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: $71.47 - High Jun 23 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 3: $67.68 - High Jul 30
- RES 2: $65.77/68.43 - High Sep 26 and key resistance
- RES 1: $62.59 - High Oct 24
- PRICE: $60.50 @ 07:20 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: $59.64/55.96 - Low Oct 23 & 30 / Low Oct 20 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: $54.85 - Low May 5
- SUP 3: $54.16 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
- SUP 4: $53.23 - 1.764 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing
WTI futures are unchanged and the contract remains in a corrective cycle for now. Note that price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, currently at $61.03. The breach of this EMA signals scope for a stronger recovery. Note too that a resistance at $62.34, the Oct 8 high, has also been pierced. A clear move through it would expose key resistance at $65.77, the Sep 26 high. First key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Support At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $4161.4/4381.5 - High Oct 22 / High Oct 20 and bull trigger
- RES 1: $4046.2 - High Oct 31
- PRICE: $3966.0 @ 07:28 GMT Nov 5
- SUP 1: $3886.6 - Low Oct 28
- SUP 2: $3867.3 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3800.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: $3751.3 - 50.0% retracement of the May 15 - Oct 20 bull leg
A fresh cycle low last week in Gold highlights an extension of the bear cycle that started Oct 20. The retracement since Oct 20 has allowed an overbought trend condition to unwind. The 20-day EMA has been breached, signalling scope for a test of the 50-day EMA, at $3867.3. Clearance of this EMA would strengthen a short-term bear theme. Initial resistance is at $4161.4, the Oct 22 high.
