ISRAEL: Axios-Gaza Hostages-For-Ceasefire Deal Reached: US Official
Jan-15 16:51
Barak Ravid at Axios posts on X: "BREAKING: Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal reached, U.S. official tell me."
- As we noted earlier today, there have been numerous claims and counter-claims that a deal is within reach, only to then be rebutted by either Israeli or Palestinian sources/officials. Ravid's post is the first to claim that the deal has been reached.
- Reuters reports details according to an unnamed official briefed on the agreement:
- 6-week initial ceasefire phase w/gradual withdrawal of IDF from central Gaza and return of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza.
- 600 truckloads of aid into Gaza each day of ceasefire, 50 with fuel and 300 to go to the north.
- Hamas to release 33 hostages inc. all women, children (first) and (then) men over 50. Israel to release 30 Palestinian detainees for every civilian hostage and 50 for every female soldier Hamas releases. All Palestinian women and under 19s to be released by end of phase one. Three hostages released per week, and remainder of over-50s men by end of first phase.
- Implementation of agreement to be guaranteed by Qatar, Egypt and US.
- Negotiations on second phase to start by 16th day of first phase. Set to include release of male Israeli soldiers, a permanent ceasefire and withdrawal of IDF.
- Third phase focus on beginning Gaza reconstruction under watch of Egypt, Qatar and UN.
- A Gaza ceasefire will assist in dialing down tensions in the region, but it remains to be seen the lasting impact of the conflict on both regional security as well as the prospect of Israeli normalisation with countries such as Saudi Arab
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
ECB: Schnabel Stressed The Importance Of Gradualism As Rates Approach Neutral
Dec-16 16:37
ECB Executive Board member Schnabel's speech on "Navigating towards neutral " here. Overall, she stressed the importance of a gradual removal of policy restriction as rates approach neutral. She does not provide an explicit view on she views neutral is though, only cites ECB analysis where neutral ranges from 1.5-3% in nominal terms.
- "Our decision last week to cut our key policy rates by 25 basis points reflects the conviction that a gradual and data-dependent approach remains the most appropriate strategy"
- " Even if most of the evidence points to continued disinflation, we should remain alert to signs that cast doubt on our baseline"
- "While the direction and persistence of the various effects of potential tariffs on inflation are ambiguous, their net effect is often estimated to be positive".
- "Recent analysis by ECB staff across a suite of models suggest that the point estimate of r* ranges from about -0.5% to 1%, or about 1.5% to 3% in nominal terms"..."Significant parameter uncertainty makes it even more challenging to use the natural rate as a guidepost for monetary policy".
- "Given limited policy space, monetary policy should focus on responding forcefully to shocks that have the capacity to destabilise inflation expectations by pushing inflation measurably and persistently away from our 2% target over the medium term".
- "Monetary policy is not a supply-side instrument. It cannot resolve structural issues that durably weigh on price pressures"
US TSYS: Treasuries Step Lower On Trump Comments But TYA Nears Further Support
Dec-16 16:33
- Trump saying there has been some progress in stopping the war in Ukraine has helped TYH5 step to session lows of 109-24+ (-03), nudging through Friday’s recent low of 109-26. It’s despite the more nuanced context as noted: "It's a horrible war that's going on in Ukraine, Russia, we're going to get a little progress. It's a tough one, it's a nasty one."
- Firmer clearance of this level could help firm the recent resumption of a bearish trend, but with further support closely packed at 109-22 (76.4% retrace of the Nov 15 – Dec 6 upleg) before 109-20 (Nov 20/21 low).
- TYH5 had earlier seen a post-PMI fleeting low of 109-27+ clearance of which would firm the recent resumption of a bearish trend.
- Cash yields are now 0.5-2.5bp higher on the day, bear steepening with 2s10s at 16bps (+0.5bp) as it nears last week’s high since mid-Nov.
FED: US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.250%(ALLOT 15.16%)
Dec-16 16:32
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.250%(ALLOT 15.16%)
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 39.62% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 7.61% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 52.76% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 13W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.62
Related bullets
Related by topic
Israel
Gasoil
Marine Oil
Oil Positioning
OPEC
Freight
Jet Fuel
Gasoline
Fuel Oil
Diesel
Oil Options
Energy Data
