EU AUTOMOTIVE: Autoliv (ALV Baa1/BBB/BBB+): 1Q25 Results
Apr-16 11:09
Small positive, tariff pass through was reassuring. It’s likely to see indirect impact in future quarters with pull forward shielding sales temporarily here.
- Autoliv reported revenue 3% ahead of consensus. It generated 2.2% organic growth vs -1.2% expected with the global market contracting slightly. There was some pull forward ahead of tariffs.
- Adj. EBITDA beat by 15% with margins 180bp better than expected. It had operating leverage on higher sales and cited successful cost reductions.
- Reported FOCF was -$16mn, with $38mn expected. Working capital increased more than expected due to increased sales. Reported net leverage ticked up to 1.3x from 1.2x QoQ.
- FY25 guidance was reiterated.
- It saw negligible impact from tariffs with costs largely passed on.
- Webcast 13.00 BST https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/myzc9om3/.
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EQUITIES: Option Expiries for Friday
Mar-17 11:08
Equity Option Expiries in Notional Terms for Friday's Triple Witching.
US:
- SPX: $2.91T vs $2.85T Friday.
- NDX: $106.21bn vs $104.53bn.
- Amazon: $16.24bn vs $15.33bn.
- Apple: $21.57bn vs $20.86bn.
EU: As of Friday's Data.
- SX5E: €252.84bn.
- SX7E: €19.05bn.
- DAX: €66.52bn.
- CAC: €6.54bn.
- FTSE: £24.27bn.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In S&P E-Minis Remains Present
Mar-17 10:59
- In the equity space, the trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bearish and fresh cycle lows last week reinforced current conditions. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode set-up highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 5483.50, a 2.00 projection of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing. Note that the short-term trend condition is oversold, a corrective bounce would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm resistance to watch is 5976.83, the 50-day EMA. First resistance is at 5726.75, the Mar 12 high.
- The medium-term trend direction in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains up and the recent pullback is considered corrective - for now. However, note that support at the 50-day EMA, at 5314.94, has been pierced. A clear break of this average would highlight a stronger short-term bear threat and suggest scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5202.00, the 50.0% retracement of the Dec 20 ‘24 - Mar 3 bull leg. A resumption of gains would open the 5600.00 handle.
GILTS: UBS Continue To Like 2s10s Steepeners
Mar-17 10:52
UBS expect the FY25/26 gilt remit to provide fresh steepening pressure for the 2s10s curve.
- A couple of other factors also play into their view:
- They expect “an uneventful MPC to offer little support to gilts, especially since the data following the last meeting has also been relatively strong”.
- They are also of the view that “the broad-based deterioration in consumer confidence and ongoing drag from higher mortgage payments are posing downside risks to growth forecasts.”
