US DATA: August Payrolls Growth Missed Despite A Very Favorable Seasonal Factor
Sep-05 17:22
- One additional point to note in today’s payrolls report was that the surprisingly soft seasonally adjusted increase of 22k (cons 75k) came despite a shift to a far more favorable seasonal factor in August.
- Contrary to a trend of an increasingly penal factor (weighing more on the seasonally adjusted level of payrolls) in August, with the Aug 2024 implied factor at its most penal in at least 35 years, Aug 2025 saw its most favorable since 2017.
- Putting this into context, had the August level of payrolls been subjected to the Aug 2024 seasonal factor, the change in seasonally adjusted payrolls would have been circa -100k rather than the +22k reported.
- It comes as non-seasonally adjusted payrolls growth of 200k in August followed 299k in Aug 2024, 328k in Aug 2023 and 396k in Aug 2022 and was its lowest for an August since 2015.
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