AUD: AUD/USD-Stalls As Risk Turns Lower, Will The Dip Towards 0.7110-0.7140 Hold
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.7124-0.7161 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.7135,-0.25%. Oil surged higher as 2 tankers were reportedly attacked in Iraqi waters and Oman evacuated all vessels from its key oil export terminal. The AUD stalled just ahead of 0.7200 overnight but continues to stand out for its outperformance thanks to the market pricing in a rate hike this month. The AUD is breaking its normal use as a risk-proxy and looking to build on its gains. On the day, I will be watching to see if this demand continues and watch whether dips continue to be supported. The first support is right here around 0.7110-0.7140 and then back towards the 0.7050 area, ultimately price remains within this 0.6900-0.7200 range as the conflict continues for now. A close above 0.7200 and technically you would have to start considering another leg higher, CTA’s and momentum funds will not be holding back adding to the tailwinds from the CFTC accounts that Asset managers are now building their own long.
- "ANZ BANK NOW SEES RBA HIKING CASH RATE AT MARCH 17 MEETING" - BBG
- MNI AU - Market As Confident About Next Week's RBA Hike As Before Feb's Move: Going into next week's RBA policy decision, RBA-dated OIS pricing implies a 76% probability of a 25bp hike, up from 64% at yesterday's close.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.7175(AUD819m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.7100(AUD820m Mar 13), 0.7100(AUD1.31b Mar 16) - BBG
- The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 94 Points
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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GOLD: Gold Lacks Momentum; Gives Back O/N Gains
- Despite strong overnight moves, gold gave back some of those in the Asian trading day suggesting that the one way positive bias for the precious metal may not have returned yet.
- Different momentum indicators are providing alternate backdrops for gold with the 14-day relative strength relatively neutral whilst the MACD (white line) remains below the Signal (red line) suggesting that downward trend still remains for gold. What this does suggest is that the volatility may still elevated for now, as the market continues to adjust following the volatility.
- Gold opened the Asia trading day at US$5,067 and has traded in a range of $4,987 - $5,076. Currently it is at US$5,025 a fall of -0.63%
- China's biggest metal miner Zijin Mining, raised its targeted gold output nearly a third by 2028, as prices of the precious metal remain elevated. Mined gold output will rise to between 130 to 140 tons over the next three years, the Fujian-based miner said in exchange filings on Monday. (per BBG)
- ETFs have seen a fifth consecutive day of declines in gold and silver holdings as the fall out from recent volatility continues.
BONDS: NZGBS: Subdued Trading, Underperforms $-Bloc Markets
NZGBs closed slightly richer across benchmarks after a subdued data-light session.
- NZGBs did, however, underperform their $-bloc counterparts, with the NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials 3-4bps wider.
- Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer, with a flattening bias, in today's Asia-Pac session.
- (MT Newswires) NZ’s total new lending increased to NZ$20.1 billion in December 2025 from NZ$12.79 billion in November 2025, according to RBNZ data.
- Swap rates closed little changed.
- RBNZ-dated OIS pricing closed little changed across meetings. No tightening is priced for February, while December 2026 assigns 44bps.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will be empty. The local calendar will be light until Friday's release of BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI, Net Migration and RBNZ Inflation Expectation data.
- On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 1.50% May-31 bond and NZ$200mn of the 4.5% May-35 bond.
Bloomberg Finance LP
JGBS AUCTION: 10-Year Index-Linked JGB Auction Results
The Japanese Ministry Of Finance (MOF) sells Y249.8bn of 10-year index-linked JGBs:
- High Yield: 0.458%
- Low price: 96.05
- % Allotted At High Yield: 16.4705%
- Bid/Cover: 3.3783x
