AUD: AUD/USD-Holding Above 0.6600, Market Hoping Press Briefing More Hawkish
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6609 - 0.6631 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6625, +0.02%. The AUD/USD tried lower on the RBA as the market was looking for something more to confirm their hawkish skew, this added to the headwinds from the pullback in the USD overnight. While the AUD remains above 0.6500-0.6550 I suspect dips should continue to be supported. On the day attention will now turn to the press conference where the hawkish tilt the market was looking for could still be expressed. It has come a long way very quickly so a pullback is not out of the question if the market does not get any love from the press conference, first support is toward 0.6570/90 where we should see demand reappear. Ultimately the AUD is looking to rebuild momentum to have another look back toward the 0.6700 area at some point.
- MNI AU - RBA: Rates On Hold, Upside Risks To Inflation Indicated. The RBA left rates at 3.6% at its December decision but noted that risks to inflation are tilted to the upside. The labour market remains “a little tight” and the private domestic economic momentum stronger.
- MNI AU - Q4 Conditions Up On Q3, Q4 Business Inflation Series Moderate: November NAB business conditions moderated to 7 from an upwardly-revised 10, while the more volatile confidence fell to 1 from 6, the lowest since April. Conditions remained in line with Q3 outcomes and at this stage looks like normalisation rather than slowing as the sharp rise in WA in October unwound. With hard data showing a pickup in domestic demand and inflation above the top of the RBA’s 2-3% band.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6630(AUD621m), 0.6635(AUD714m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6550(AUD1.59b Dec 11) - BBG
- The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 36 Points
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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FED: Fed Assets Pull Back, But Reserve Management Buys Eyed In 2026 (2/2)
Indeed NY's Williams has already begun pointing to potential for balance sheet re-expansion to begin again, with "reserve management" purchases intended to keep Fed liabilities rising in line with market demand:
- "Looking forward, the next step in our balance sheet strategy will be to assess when the level of reserves has reached ample. It will then be time to begin the process of gradual purchases of assets that will maintain an ample level of reserves as the Fed’s other liabilities grow and underlying demand for reserves increases over time. Such reserve management purchases will represent the natural next stage of the implementation of the FOMC’s ample reserves strategy and in no way represent a change in the underlying stance of monetary policy."
- The prevailing consensus is that such reserve management purchases will begin by the end of Q1 2026 if not earlier, with t-bills bought and in amounts of up to $20B a month.
- Meanwhile in the final countdown to the end of QT on December 1, net SOMA runoff was around $4B in the last week, with a pace of around $20B overall over the last month.
- Takeup of the Fed's lending facilities pulled back in the week to Wednesday Nov 5, halving to just over $11B as month-end pressures abated. This was due almost entirely to a $10.2B drop in dealer repo operation takeup, the spike in which last week marked the highest since 2020.
FED: Reserves Tick Up Slightly In Latest Week, But Still Near "Ample" (1/2)
The Fed's latest H.4.1 release on Nov 5 showed reserves picked up from the prior week's post-2020 lows to $2.85T, up $24B in the latest week but still down $182B over the last month.
- This of course has been the mirror image of movements in the Treasury General Account which briefly touched $1T though settled Wednesday at $943B (a fall of $41B on the week, but a rise of $149B in a month).
- Treasury indicated this week that it maintained its $850B quarter-end cash target, with the recent buildup due in part to the federal government shutdown slowing outflows but also a typical cautionary cash rase ahead of large seasonal expenditures.
- The Fed's reverse repo facilities remained in relatively negligible territory albeit with a slight pickup at month-end October.
- Overall the Fed has recognized that it may be getting close to the transition point between once-"abundant" and now merely "ample" reserves, hence October's decision to end net asset runoff as of Dec 1.
- NY Fed President Williams said Friday morning “Based on recent sustained repo market pressures and other growing signs of reserves moving from abundant to ample, I expect that it will not be long before we reach ample reserves."
FED: Financial Stability Report Eyes Term Premia And "Opaque" Financing Risks
A few highlights from the Fed's latest Financial Stability report out today (link):
- In terms of asset valuations, "Prices remained high relative to their historical relationship with fundamentals across a range of markets."
- The report highlights high leverage in the financial sector: "Vulnerabilities associated with financial leverage remained notable. Over the past few years, hedge funds’ leverage has steadily increased across a broad range of strategies, including those involving Treasury securities, interest rate derivatives, and equities"
- However "Vulnerabilities from business and household debt remained moderate" and "The banking sector remained sound and resilient overall, and most banks continued to report capital levels well above regulatory requirements."
- In terms of future risks, "A further increase in term premiums leading to higher-than-anticipated long-term interest rates, particularly if accompanied by
persistent inflation, could pose risks for both borrowers and lenders" - And the Fed has its eye on "opaque off-balance-sheet funding arrangements" re the recent voliatility caused by First Brands and Tricolor: "The recent bankruptcies of two privately held firms, an auto parts supplier and a subprime auto lender, so far appear to be isolated events. However, these examples highlight that unexpected losses could arise from opaque off-balance-sheet funding arrangements that may be used by certain privately held firms."
