AUDNZD: AUD/NZD Higher Post AU Employment
Oct-17 22:11
- AUD/NZD closed up 0.40% at 1.1053 on Thursday, the move higher came following the stronger-than expected employment data.
- There could be further upside for the cross following NZ CPI falling to multi-year lows on Wednesday, which saw RBNZ dated OIS price in 100bps of cuts across the next two meetings, while RBA dated OIS is now pricing just 6.8bps of cuts across the next two meetings.
- Looking at technical levels the cross found support at 1.1013 (61.8% of the July 30-Sep 6 move), the close back above 1.1050 was needed to resume the upward trend with key resistance is seen at 1.1100, with a break here opening a move to test yearly highs at 1.1144 (July 29 highs).
- The AU-NZ 2yr swap hit a new multi-year high of 42bps on Thursday, it trades slightly off those levels now at +39bps.
- Today the local calendar is empty
Chart. AUD/NZD vs AU-NZ 2yr Swap
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NZD: AUD/NZD break Back Above 1.0900, RBA's Jones To Speak
Sep-17 22:01
- The AUD/NZD edged higher closing up 0.33% at 1.0923 on Tuesday. The cross has managed to break above initial resistance and out of the recent ranges it had been trading in since late August.
- Initial resistance is now seen at 1.0963 (Aug 8 highs) a break here would open a move back to 1.1000. To the downside support is now 1.0900, while the 20 & 200-day EMAs at 1.0890/80 are the next supports
- RBA dated OIS pricing is little changed heading into year-end, with 22bps of cuts priced in. Looking further out through to July next year we have 100bps of cuts priced in, in contrast to 202bps in NZ & 236bps in the US.
- The AU-NZ 2yr swap spread fell 4bps on Tuesday to close at -1bps.
- Expiries: 1.0925 ($200m) Sep 18, 1.0900 ($602.75m) & 1.111 ($234.02m) for Sept 19
- Today, RBA's Assistant Gov Brad Jones will speak at 0920 AEST / 0720 HKT followed by the Westpac Leading Index at 1030 AEST / 0800 HKT
NZD: NZD/USD Falls Slightly, After US data Beats Estimates
Sep-17 21:58
- The NZD/USD fell 0.29% on Tuesday closing at 0.6184. After the USD index found support and was unable to breach the previous lows seen in August while firmer US advanced retail sales number and stronger-than-expected IP have supported a moderate correction higher for the DXY as we approach the pivotal FOMC decision on Wednesday.
- There was a late sell-off in equity which did cause some weakness in the higher beta currencies including the NZD, although we still remain within recent ranges and didn't test any major support zones.
- The pair continues to trades above all key moving averages, indicating bullish momentum. Initial resistance is 0.6237 (Sept 6 high) above here cycle highs of 0.6300 becomes the target. Support is Thursday's lows of 0.6130 while further below we have the 100 & 20-day EMAs at 0.6100/90 area.
- The average price for whole milk powder rose 1.5% to $3,448 per ton, up from $3,396 at the previous auction. The GDT price index increased by 0.8% weighted average price for all milk products was $3,883 per ton.
- New Zealand consumer confidence improved in the three months through September, rising to 90.8 from 82.2 in the previous quarter. A net 15% expect the economy to worsen in the next 12 months, down from 31% in the second quarter. Meanwhile, 6.3% expect their financial position to improve in a year, 25% reported worsened finances, down slightly from 28% last quarter.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing has cooled 2-3bps into year-end, with 84bps of cuts now being priced. Pricing through to July next year has also cooled 2-5bps with 202bps of by priced by July.
- The NZ-US 2yr swap spread rose 1bps to 17bps on Tuesday
- Expiries: 0.615 ($450m), 0.6035 ($500m) Sep 19
- Today, BoP Current Account Balance at 0845 AEST / 0645 HKT
ASIA: Coming Up In The Asian Session On Wednesday
Sep-17 21:14
| 0620GMT | 1420HKT | 1720AEDT | Indonesia Sep BI Rate Decision |
| China Aug FX Net Settlement |
