AUD: AUD Strength Standing Out Wednesday, Labour Market Data Awaited

US President Donald Trump is shortly due to address reporters ahead of a meeting with the board of the Kennedy Center. LIVESTREAM Earlier today, Trump billed the press availability on Truth Social as a 'news conference'. A White House official clarifed to the press pool, "Regarding the President’s latest TRUTH, he is referring to bringing in press at the top of the Trump Kennedy Center meeting."

• The primary market interest will be comments on Iran and his initative to re-open the Strait of Hormuz, which has recieved a tepid response from allies. Trump is also likely to speak on the SAVE Act, which comes in front of the Senate this week. Trump has called on Senate Republicans to terminate the Senate filibuster in order to pass the package of voter reforms.
• Trump may also address the ongoing shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security, which has now entered a second month. Long lines have been reported at airports across the country, after TSA screeners missed their first paychecks. Coupled with expected airfare hikes amid the surge in jet fuel costs, the issue is likely to be a major political liability for Trump in the coming months.
• Trump wrote on Truth Social earlier, "The crazed Democrats are not allowing TSA Agents to get paid. The deal was made a long time ago. They broke it in order to get money for Sanctuary Cities and illegal aliens, many of them hardened criminals. The Radical Left Democrats are hopeless!!!"

Some analyst takes (in alphabetical order of institution) on the February CPI report:

• CIBC: "The "before" picture of Canadian inflation ahead of the oil price shock should give the Bank of Canada some comfort as it looked tame overall...While the before picture looked good, the after picture of inflation following the start of the war could show headline inflation accelerating to roughly 3% y/y in the coming months. The magnitude and duration of the shock will be important for the BoC, however, it will take comfort in the fact that core service prices are being contained by labour market slack and decelerating shelter costs, which should keep policymakers on the sidelines this year."
• Goldman Sachs: "Today's data were soft overall, with both headline and exclusion core inflation surprising to the downside, and the BoC's preferred inflation measures continuing to ease. Overall, today's data support our view that the BoC will remain on hold at 2.25% in 2026, and we continue to see two-sided risks around our forecast, despite the recent hawkish shift in pricing."
• National: "This morning’s CPI release is already somewhat outdated, given how much the outlook has shifted following the conflict in the Middle East. Still, it provides a snapshot of how price dynamics were evolving heading into the conflict, and the picture is encouraging... Looking ahead, we expect inflation to move toward the upper end (3.0%) of the BoC’s target range in the coming months as higher oil prices feed through the economy. That said, assuming some degree of de-escalation in the near term, core inflation should remain relatively insulated from these dynamics in the short term. This could give the BoC some latitude to look through the rise in headline inflation, particularly since underlying price pressures appeared well contained prior to the conflict in a context where the economy is in oversupply, weakened by uncertainty over tariffs."
• RBC: "That won’t be the last of supply-driven inflation: elevated oil prices from ongoing Middle East tensions will translate into higher energy inflation in March. However...we don't expect the Bank of Canada to rush to respond, until gaining more clarity on the scope, duration, and growth-inflation trade-off of the current shock."
• TD: "The softer inflation backdrop is unlikely to weigh as heavily on the Bank's deliberations on Wednesday given near risks to inflation from higher energy prices, but it should give them more scope to look through their impact over the near-term...We still don’t see hikes as a 2026 story, but would suspect it takes a few more softer data prints for the market to feel the same"

OEM6 116.25/116.75/117.00/117.50 call condor paper paid 9.5 on 4K.