FOREX: AUD Crosses - Remain Under Pressure
US Stocks reacted to the break higher in yields and saw some reversion after its recent rally higher. This was particularly evident in the crosses as the AUD looks to potentially reengage its trend lower and is probably a better way to express AUD underperformance.
- EUR/AUD - Overnight range 1.7533 - 1.7623, Asia is trading around 1.7600. The dovishness of the RBA gave the catalyst to break the tops around 1.7500 and the move accelerated from there. A base looks to be in place now from which to build for a move higher, expect buyers on dips now back towards 1.74/75.
- GBP/AUD - Overnight range 2.0786 - 2.0865, Asia is trading around 2.0840. A clear break of the 2.0800 resistance and a solid base at 2.0500 now from which to move higher. Expect demand on dips now, first target 2.1000.
- AUD/JPY - Overnight range 92.38 - 92.93, Asia is trading around 92.40. Decent demand again seen towards the 92.00 area as it holds overnight. A sustained close back below 91.50/92.00 is needed to turn the focus back towards the lows again. With stocks looking like they have more to go in this retracement it could provide further headwinds for this pair.
AUD/NZD - Overnight range 1.0829 - 1.0868, the cross is dealing in Asia around 1.0845. The Cross has finally found some supply just above 1.0900, has this put in a high now ? Expect supply on bounces back towards 1.0900 now
Fig 1: GBP/AUD spot Hourly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
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US TSYS: Cash Open - Quiet Start
TYM5 is trading 110.24+, down 0-01 from its close.
- Risk turned lower on Monday with concerns that President Trump will fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, adding to a market that is already consumed with uncertainty.
- “The US treasury has $60 Billion of extraordinary measures left, in addition to its cash pile, to help keep paying the government's bills.”(per BBG)
- Global GDP may take a $2 Trillion hit by the end of 2027 from Trump’s tariffs, per Bloomberg Economics estimates.
- Russia - Ukraine: Trump said there’s a good chance of a deal being reached this week. A US delegation led by Marco Rubio, Steve Witkoff and Keith Kellogg are slated to meet Ukrainian and European officials in London on Wednesday.
- China has warned countries against striking deals with the US that could hurt Beijing’s interests, putting countries in a position where they will eventually have to pick a side.
- The US 10-year yield has opened in Asia around 4.40%, after closing at 4.4106%.
- Data: The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook
AUSSIE BONDS: Twist-Steepening As Trading Resumes, Trump v Powell In Focus
ACGBs (YM +6.0 & XM -3.0) have twist-steepened after US tsys finished mixed on Monday. The US 2-year yield was down 4bps to 3.76%. The long end was underwater, with the 30-year rate rising 10bps to 4.90% amid inflation angst and fiscal worries. The US 10-year yield ranged between 4.3287% - 4.4185%, closing near the high around 4.41%, 8 bps higher.
- US markets were impacted by ongoing uncertainty over tariffs and rising concerns over Fed independence. President Trump's further verbal attacks on Fed Chair Powell appeared to heighten concerns over the soundness of US assets and unnerved investors.
- Cash ACGBs are 7 bps lower to 1 bp higher with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -12 bps.
- Swap rates are 6bps lower to 1bp higher, with the 3s10s curve steeper.
- The bills strip has bear-flattened, with pricing +2 to +6.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-8 bps softer across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 25% probability, with a cumulative 122bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%).
- Today, the local calendar will be empty.
- This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$1000mn of the 3.25% 21 April 2029 bond on Wednesday.
JPY: Eyes Pivotal 140.00 Area
The range on Monday was 142.14 - 140.48, price opens in Asia near the lows around 140.70/80. Price action is very clear, any move back towards risk aversion will see the purchase of JPY accelerate.
- Concerns President Trump will fire Fed Chairman Jerome Powell added to a market that is already consumed with uncertainty.
- “BOJ Officials see little need to change their gradual rate hike stance despite US trade uncertainties, " people familiar said. They are considering cutting inflation forecasts due to a stronger yen and cheaper oil.” (per BBG)
- Prime minister Ishiba Shigeru stated the government will do everything in its power to provide support to small and medium sized businesses affected by the US tariffs.
- Regarding tariff negotiations, he expressed the view that US President Trump places the highest priority on eliminating trade deficits with countries around the world, including Japan.
- Regarding non-tariff barriers on automobiles, about which the US side has expressed dissatisfaction, he said, “ we will work things out properly so that they are not described as unfair,” indicating his intention to consider how to respond. (per BBG)
- The perception of the US is changing and the belief in its exceptionalism is being challenged. If this view pervades, expect the move lower in the USD to intensify and USD/JPY the favourite vehicle to express this in currencies.
- On the day expect sellers back towards 142/143, traders will be watching the long term pivotal area around 140.00 a break would really see this move accelerate opening up a bigger move back to 125/130.
- CFTC data shows Asset managers continuing to add to longs, while leveraged are only just starting to get long.
- USD/JPY: upcoming notable strikes, 140.00($1.61b), 145.00($1.38b) Exp Apr 24 NY cut (Source DTCC).
- Data : The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook tonight.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY CFTC Weekly Data
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
