FOREX: AUD Awaits Cue for Next Leg Higher, US/China Relations & Q1 CPI in Frame
Apr-24 14:19
- Following the correction higher for the US dollar from the Monday lows, AUDUSD has slipped back below 0.6400. US equities have spent the session consolidating well off prior session highs amid the Chinese pushback against trade talk progress, likely weighing on the Aussie at the margin.
- Given the surrounding sentiment around the broader dollar, AUDUSD may have a lot of room to appreciate, particularly in the context of AUDUSD remaining 4.5% below the US election related highs, at 0.6688. We highlighted some of the most recent analyst views on the USD trend here: https://mni.marketnews.com/3YJuB96
- However, sensitivity to broader risk sentiment and the significance of 0.6400 as a pivot point on the chart might leave the pair vulnerable should we post a weekly close below this mark.
- Initial key support to monitor is 0.6305, the 20-day EMA, a break of which would open up 0.6181, the April 11 low. To the upside, renewed clearance of 0.6409 would put attention on 0.6471, the Dec 9 '24 high.
- While developments between US/China will likely remain the primary driver for AUDUSD sentiment, it is worth noting that Australian CPI data is scheduled next Wednesday. This will be an important input into the May 20 RBA decision, where a rate cut is largely expected. There are high correlations between NZ and Australian CPI data – more on this here: https://mni.marketnews.com/3YJBUxz
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
PIPELINE: Corporate Bonds: $1.25B NWB 3Y SOFR Launch ,LG Energy Guidance Updated
Mar-25 14:15
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 03/25 $4.65B Bausch Health 7NC3 10%a
- 03/25 $1.25B #NWB 3Y SOFR+36
- 03/25 $1B #MuniFin WNG 5Y SOFR+46
- 03/25 $1B #IDB 5Y SOFR+49
- 03/25 $Benchmark LG Energy 3Y +135, 5Y +145, 5Y SOFR+170, 10Y +170
- 03/25 $Benchmark Kingdom of Belgium 10Y SOFR+67a
- 03/25 $Benchmark National Health Investors investor calls
- 03/25 $Benchmark Dell Technologies investor calls
EQUITIES: Stoxx 50 Holds Most Of Rally, Bullish Theme Maintained
Mar-25 14:13
While the intraday rally has stalled, the Euro Stoxx 50 index is still ~1% higher vs. yesterday’s close.
- The energy sector outperforms, with oil prices higher on the day.
- Meanwhile, hope surrounding tariff relaxation from the Trump admin has been used as an explainer during rallies over the past couple of sessions.
- This morning’s slightly-stronger-than expected German Ifo data also factors into the broader move, while banks have benefitted from a combination of higher yields and some price target upgrades at J.P.Morgan.
- The technical trend in Euro Stoxx 50 futures remains bullish. The next upside target is located at the Mar 19/20 highs (5,471.00).
US TSYS: Post New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg Index React
Mar-25 14:05
- Tsy futures are extending gains after Conf. Board Consumer Confidence comes out lower than expected, New Home Sales dipped but up-revision of prior more than made up for the move.
- Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures trade 110-21 (+3.5) vs. 110-21.5 high, initial technical resistance well above at 111-17.5/25 (High Mar 20 / 11).
- Curves still steeper but off earlier highs: 2s10s +.566 at 30.146 (31.698 high), 5s30s +2.041 at 58.656 (58.949 high).
