EQUITIES: Attention on the European Cash Open
Some attention at the European Cash Open, as just Noted the VGU5 Targets the next decent resistance ...
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EQUITIES: Lower Cash Opens Eyed In Europe
While ASML’s headline Q2 earnings figures were generally firmer than expected, some soft Q3 guidance and a lack of firm guidance for ’26 seems to have weighed on wider sentiment, with Euro Stoxx 50 futures more than unwinding the initial uptick that followed the release.
- Broader European equity index futures point to downside at the cash open:
- Euro Stoxx 50 futures: -0.52%
- DAX futures: -0.56%
- CAC 40 futures: -0.38%
- FTSE MIB futures: -0.44%
- SMI futures: -0.02%
- FTSE 100 futures: -0.25%
STIR: Less Than 50bp Of Cuts Priced Through Dec After CPI
Hawkish adjustments in GBP STIRs following the firmer-than-expected CPI data.
- BoE-dated OIS 1-4bp less dovish as a result.
- BoE-dated OIS now shows just under 50bp of cuts through year-end after pricing as much as ~58bp of easing over that horizon in the wake of BoE Governor Bailey’s dovish weekend comments and a soft REC labour market release.
- Market still shows over 80% odds of a cut at the August MPC and fully discounts such a move through the September meeting.
- SONIA futures 0.5-5.0 lower. SFIZ5 has pierced but not cleanly broken its pre-existing July low, while SFIZ6 failed to pierce its own month-to-date low.
- Nothing of any real note from BoE Governor Bailey and Chancellor Reeves (outside of already leaked details) in the Mansion House addresses last night, which will leave focus on adjustments to the CPI release and any spill over from U.S. PPI data.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Aug-25 | 4.013 | -20.5 |
Sep-25 | 3.960 | -25.8 |
Nov-25 | 3.806 | -41.1 |
Dec-25 | 3.723 | -49.4 |
Feb-26 | 3.595 | -62.2 |
Mar-26 | 3.561 | -65.6 |
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (U5) Trading Closer To Its Recent Highs
- RES 4: 6402.44 1.382 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 3: 6381.00 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 6356.12 1.236 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
- RES 1: 6343.00 High Jul 15
- PRICE: 6323.25@ 14:54 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: 6246.25 Low Jul 7
- SUP 2: 6218.56/6073.00 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 5811.50 Low May 23
- SUP 4: 5645.75 Low May 7
S&P E-Minis are trading in a range, closer to their recent highs. The trend condition remains bullish. Recent activity has resulted in a break of resistance at 6128.75, the Jun 11 high. The breach confirmed a resumption of the uptrend that started Apr 7. This was followed by a break of key resistance and a bull trigger at 6277.50, the Feb 21 high. Sights are on 6356.12, a Fibonacci projection. Key support is at the 50-day EMA, at 6073.00.
