US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Atlanta Fed GDPNow Steady After Retail Sales, IP Data

President Donald Trump has addressed recent reporting that he could fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell, ahead of a bilateral meeting with the Crown Prince of Bahrain. LIVESTREAM

• Asked if he could fire Powell, Trump says: "He's always been too late... he should have cut interest rates a long time ago... The only time he cut them was to [benefit Democrats]... I think he does a terrible job..."
• Trump continues: "He's a terrible Fed Chair... We're not planning on [firing Powell], but we're very concerned."
• Trump says, noting the justification the White House is investigating for Powell's dismissal: "He's doing a little renovation [at the Fed's DC headquarters] for $2.5 billion. Building a renovation and they have a close to $900 million overrun, but the biggest overrun is the cost overrun for interest rates... We should be paying three points lower and would save a trillion dollars a year in interest..."
• Reiterates: "He's doing a lousy job, but we're not talking about [firing him]. Fortunately, we get to make a change in the next eight months."
• After downplaying reporting, Trump declined to "rule out" firing Powell but said it's highly unlikley, "unless there's fraud involved" with the Fed renovation - appearing to keep the option on the table.
• The implied probability of firing Powell in 2025 dropped from 40% to 20%, per Polymarket. However, it should be noted that Trump often misdirects the press before a major decision to maintain strategic ambiguity. For example, ahead of airstrikes on Iran.

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