US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Atlanta Fed GDPNow For Q2 Steadies At 2.6%

• Treasuries blipped higher after NY Fed 1Y inflation expectations come out lower than expected. Tsys remain inside session range, curves steeper with Bonds underperforming.
• Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures currently trades +5 at 110-02  vs. 110-03.5 session high (110-06 overnight high), technical resistance above at 110-20.5 (50-day EMA).
• Curves steeper: 2s10s +1.292 at 47.998, 5s30s +2.282 at 86.791
• Cross asset: Stocks mildly higher - inside narrow range (SPX eminis +6.25 at 6013.0), Gold higher at 3322.45.
• Bbg US$ index little weaker, inside range at 1209.81 (-1.93).

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• As we have noted on previous occasions, official UK labour market data has fallen in priority over the past few months, but with a number of pay settlements filtering into the official data, it is more in focus again.
• The most important number in the report remains the private AWE ex-bonus. Consensus expects this to fall to 5.3% in the 3-months to April from 5.56%Y/Y in the 3-months to March (which was 0.14ppt above the BOE’s forecast) and 5.90% in the 3-months to February.

WSJ reports that according to people familiar with the matter, "Ahead of U.S.-China talks in London, President Trump authorized Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's team to negotiate away recent restrictions on the sale of a wide variety of technology and other products to China," These comments would seem to chime with those from NEC Director Kevin Hassett, who said earlier that if a deal is reached "any export controls from the US will be eased" (see 'US-CHINA: Hassett-Chip Controls Could Be Relaxed If Rare Earth Deal Reached', 1510BST).

• WSJ: “Historically, export controls have never been used as leverage for trade negotiations,” said Kevin Wolf, a partner at Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld who specializes in international trade. “There is no precedent for this.”
• WSJ: "The products covered by recent U.S. restrictions—never publicly announced by the administration—include jet engines and related parts, which China needs to make its own commercial aircraft; software required by Chinese companies to produce chips; and ethane, a component of natural gas important in manufacturing plastics..."
• Speaking in May, Nvidia chief Jensen Huang labelled US export controls on chips to China "a failure", saying the controls gave domestic manufacturers "the spirit, the energy and the government support to accelerate their development/"