US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Atlanta Fed GDPNow For Q2 Dips Despite Better Net Exports
Jun-05 16:25
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow latest estimate for Q2 growth is 3.8% Q/Q SAAR. This is down from the last published update on June 2 of 4.6%, though if they had published an update yesterday (after weak ISM services and poor auto sit would have fallen to 3.5%.
- Today's trade data was an upside factor for the estimate, with a bigger drop in imports and a smaller drop in exports than their forecast had initially expected, however most other areas of growth look worse vs June 2. That includes pullbacks in anticipated growth for private consumption (2.6% vs 4.0% on June 2), equipment investment (2.3% after 8.8%), and both residential and nonresidential investment.
- Details in the table below.
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US TSYS/SUPPLY: Preview: 10Y Auction
May-06 16:25
- Treasury futures are holding mixed ahead midday ahead of the $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CNC1) at the top of the hour, WI currently 4.362%, 7.3bp rich to last month's stop.
- April auction recap: Treasury futures pared losses after the $39B 10Y note auction reopen (91282CMM0) stopped through again: drawing 4.435% high yield vs. 4.467% WI; 2.67x bid-to-cover vs. 2.59x prior.
- Peripheral stats: indirect take-up climbed to high of 87.90% vs. 67.41% prior; direct bidder take-up fell to record low of 1.4% from 19.51% prior; primary dealer take-up 10.7% vs. 13.08% prior.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
May-06 16:17
- EUR/USD: May08 $1.1200(E2.5bln), $1.1250(E1.5bln), $1.1390-00(E3.0bln), $1.1420-25(E1.3bln); May09 $1.1300(E1.3bln), $1.1375-85(E954mln), $1.1400-10(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: May08 Y142.00($1.1bln), Y143.00($1.6bln), Y145.00($1.3bln); May09 Y145.00($1.8bln); May12 Y142.45-50($1.0bln)
- USD/CAD: May09 C$1.3700($1.2bln), C$1.3750($1.2bln)
- USD/CNY: May08 Cny7.4500($1.5bln)
