US DATA: Atlanta Fed GDPNow Est For Q1 Drops 1.1pp After Payrolls, Retail Sales
Mar-06 16:54
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow estimate of Q1 GDP fell to 2.1% Q/Q SAAR Friday from the previous 3.2%.
- 0.8pp of the 1.1pp decline was due to a weaker real PCE nowcast, of 1.8% vs 3.0% in the prior estimate, with the decline appearing to stem from weak nonfarm payrolls data (with downward revisions) and continued softness in retail sales momentum in reports released this morning.
- That would mark the weakest quarterly consumption figure since Q1 2025, and a clear deceleration from 2.4% in Q4 and 3.5% in Q3.
- We also note weaker contributions from business and residential investment and inventories.
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NZD: NZDUSD Slips Below 0.60 as Mixed Labour Market Data Weighs
Feb-04 16:49
- In New Zealand, Q4 labour market data was mixed overnight. Despite the higher jobs growth figure, the unemployment rate edged up to 5.4%, above both the market consensus and RBNZ forecast of 5.3%, potentially dampening RBNZ hiking bets and taking the wind out of the Kiwi’s sails.
- NZDUSD has recently extended Wednesday’s decline to 0.75%, slipping back below 0.6000 in the process. Support levels to note for the pair intersect at 0.5930 (20-day EMA) before more meaningful support at the prior break level around 0.5850.
- Meanwhile, the moderate regional disparity has helped AUDNZD edge higher today and subsequently consolidate above 1.1650. Despite growing signs of a pullback in mid-January the cross’ resilience remains notable. A breach of the 1.1693 highs would place the cross at the highest level since 2013.
- The RBNZ’s hawkish tone late last year pushed fixed mortgage rates higher despite a 25bp cut to the OCR, effectively tightening financial conditions and reducing the need for further near-term rate changes, a former assistant governor told MNI, noting that a stronger NZD will add to that restraint.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Feb-04 16:47
- EUR/USD: Feb06 $1.1800(E3.0bln), $1.2000(E3.3bln); Feb09 $1.1900(E2.9bln); Feb10 $1.1800-05(E1.5bln)
- AUD/USD: Feb06 $0.6875-90(A$2.1bln); Feb09 $0.6860(A$1.5bln), $0.6900(A$1.7bln); Feb10 $0.6900(A$1.2bln), $0.7100(A$1.1bln)
US TSY OPTIONS: Latest Extreme Out-of-the-Money Call Buy/Open Trade
Feb-04 16:36
- +51,659 TYH6 118.25 calls, cab-7, open trade (OI 100)
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