US DATA: Atlanta Fed GDPNow Back Above 5.4% On Residential Construction Upgrade

The Dallas Fed's Weekly Economic Index (WEI) indicated growth of 2.29% Y/Y (scaled to 4-quarter growth) in the week of Dec 13, same as the prior week but bringing the 13-week moving average down slightly to 2.24%.

• We get the delayed release of Q3 advance GDP Tuesday and. The WEI is consistent with 4+% Q/Q SAAR GDP growth in the quarter, which looks like it may be an overestimate compared with the Atlanta Fed's expectation of 3.5% and the analyst consensus of 3.2%.
• The Atlanta Fed will post its first Q4 nowcast after the Q3 release. The Dallas Fed WEI is currently tracking the equivalent of 2.3% Q/Q SAAR growth for the quarter.

• RES 4: 0.6759 High Oct 11 ‘24   
• RES 3: 0.6723 High Oct 21 ‘24 
• RES 2: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.6661/86 High Dec 16 / 10
• PRICE: 0.6655 @ 15:33 GMT Dec 22 
• SUP 1: 0.6593 Low Dec 18
• SUP 2: 0.6568 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.6517 Low Nov 27 
• SUP 4: 0.6466/21 Low Nov 26 / 21 

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. The move down has allowed an overbought condition to unwind. Support at the 20-day EMA, at 0.6599, has been pierced. The 50-day average is at 0.6568. The area between the two averages represents a key short-term support zone. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on key resistance at 0.6707, the Sep 17 high and bull trigger.

• Treasuries look to finish near late Monday lows, light volumes (TYH6 705k) on narrow ranges at the start of the shortened Christmas holiday week: early close Wednesday at 1315ET, Thursday Closed, full session Friday.
• Currently, TYH6 trades -4.5 at 112-11.5 (10Y yld 4.1667 +.0196) vs. 112-09.5 low, a continuation lower would refocus attention on 111-29, the Dec 10 low and a key short-term support. A breach of this support resumes the bear cycle that started Oct 17.
• Scant data today: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September at -0.21 vs -0.31 in August, while Gov Miran on Bloomberg TV says that the incoming data have "come out in accordance with my view of the world", referring in particular to last week's CPI and Employment Situation reports.
• Focus is on tomorrow's busy morning data schedule: ADP Weekly, GDP, IP/Cap-U, while US Tsy auctions 2Y FRN and 5Y Notes.
• The Japanese finance minister Katayama provided the most forceful warning of intervention on Monday, stating that the MoF have a ‘free hand’ to take bold action on the currency. This kept pressure on USDJPY, which erased around 100 pips of the strong rally seen following the BOJ’s hike last Friday.