OIL: Asian Refiners May Seek More Mexican/Canadian Crude
South Korean and Japanese refiners are willing to procure significantly more Mexican and Canadian crude should producers seek to diversify their sales outlets in light of US tariffs threats, Platts reports.
- Potential US tariffs on Mexico and Canada next month could disrupt crude trade flows within North American markets.
- Mexican and Canadian crude suppliers could turn to Asian outlets as a remedy, according to refinery sources cited by Platts.
- South Korean refiners are willing to consider significantly raising Mexican and Canadian crude procurement, Platts reports. South Korean refiners collectively bought 26.5m bbl of crude from Pemex last year.
- Meanwhile, Japanese refiners are seeking to diversify their supply sources. Japan sourced 95% of its crude imports from the Middle East in 2024.
- "As a trading firm, when [Asian side] demand is ripe and [Canadian and Mexican] supply is plentiful, we can play a significant role in the middle," an analyst at a Japanese trading house said.
- The Maya OSP differential for February stood at a $7.6/bbl discount against the Arab Heavy OSP differential for the same loading month indicating that Asian refiners equipped with advanced crackers could yield strong margins by processing Mexican crude.
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CANADA: Betting Markets Shift To 95% Probability Of Imminent PM Resignation
Following earlier headlines in the domestic press claiming that PM Justin Trudeau could resign/announce his resignation as soon as 7 Jan (see 'CANADA: Trudeau Increasingly Likely To Announce Exit This Week-Globe&Mail', 0725GMT), betting markets have shifted significantly. Data from Polymarket shows political bettors assigning a 95% implied probability that Trudeau will announce his resignation before February, while data from Kalshi shows bettors assigning the same 95% implied probability that Trudeau will resign before April. Prior to the publication of the speculation on 5 Jan, the implied probability of an immediate resignation stood around 50%.
- There has been a flurry of media stories claiming that former BoC and BoE governor Mark Carney could launch a bid for the leadership of Trudeau's centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC). CTV News reports "Since Boxing Day, sources say Carney has made and fielded dozens of calls to Liberal MPs and political organizers who view him as a potential replacement for Trudeau."
- Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc, a close ally of Trudeau, is seen as a potential interim PM if Trudeau goes immediately. Alternatively, he may seek the LPC leadership. Former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, whose resignation in December sent shockwaves through Canadian politics, is another likely runner.
- With the Trudeau gov't currently a minority administration, it remains to be seen whether a new Liberal leader would seek to maintain the current situation or risk a snap election with the LPC trailing Pierre Poilievre's centre-right Conservatives by a double-digit margin in opinion polling.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability PM Trudeau Announces Resignation Before February, %
Source: Polymarket
MNI: EUROZONE FINAL DEC COMPOSITE PMI 49.6 (FLASH 49.5); NOV 48.3
- MNI: EUROZONE FINAL DEC COMPOSITE PMI 49.6 (FLASH 49.5); NOV 48.3
- MNI: EUROZONE FINAL DEC SRVICES PMI 51.6 (FLASH 51.4); NOV 49.5
MNI: GERMANY FINAL DEC SRVCS PMI 51.2 (FLASH 51.0); NOV 49.3
- MNI: GERMANY FINAL DEC SRVCS PMI 51.2 (FLASH 51.0); NOV 49.3
