US TSYS: Asia Wrap - Yields Drift Lower In The Long End

NZGBs closed little changed on a data-light local session, with benchmark yields flat to 1bp higher.

• The local calendar will be empty until ANZ Consumer Confidence and Filled Jobs data on Friday.
• NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials closed little changed.
• Cash US tsys are 2-3bps cheaper across benchmarks in today's Asia-Pac session after Friday's uneventful end to the trading week. Monday's US focus will be on S&P flash PMIs alongside more Fed speakers including Atlanta Fed Bostic on Bbg TV and Fed Gov Barr on small business lending late in the afternoon.
• Swaps closed with a twist-steepener, with rates 2bps lower to 1bp higher.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 3bps softer across meetings, with late 2025 / early 2026 leading. 24bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 68bps by
• On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 3.00% Apr-29 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond and NZ$50mn of the 5.00% May-54 bond.

ACGBs (YM flat & XM -1.5) are little changed on a data light session. 

• Cash US tsys are 2-3bps cheaper across benchmarks in today's Asia-Pac session after Friday's uneventful end to the trading week.  Monday's US focus will be on S&P flash PMIs alongside more Fed speakers including Atlanta Fed Bostic on Bbg TV and Fed Gov Barr on small business lending late in the afternoon.
• Cash ACGBs are 1bp richer to 1bp cheaper with the 3/10 curve steeper and the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +13bps.
• Swap rates are little changed.
• The bills strip is -1 to +2, with a flattening bias.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is little changed across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in April is given a 4% probability, with a cumulative 67bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 4.09%).
• It is a quiet week in Australia with the focus on tomorrow's budget, especially given an election is likely to be called soon afterwards. It is expected to show deficits across the forecast horizon with additional expenditure likely in an attempt to win votes.
• The key data item for the week is Wednesday's February CPI data.

USD/CNH has held above 7.2500 at 7.2619  in early trading Monday, with the currency finishing Friday flat against the dollar. The dollar recouped post FOMC losses in Thursday trade but failed to follow on into Friday. USD/CNY spot finished up at 7.2518 on Friday and is 7.2588 in early trade, while the CNY CFETS basket tracker rose 0.10% to 98.8805 (per BBG). This following firm gains last week, yet still fits with the pattern of the yuan outperforming during firmer USD sessions. 

• For USD/CNH technicals, we are back around the mid-point of the 20 and 100-day EMA levels. Further north is the 50-day EMA resistance point close to 7.2645. On the downside, focus likely rests with the simple 200-day MA, last close to 7.2390.
• China equities are coming off a volatile week last week and starting Monday on a positive footing.   
• Data ahead for the week include Medium Term Lending Facilities (no change expected to interest rate) and industrial profits.