JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Gives Back Some Of Its NFP Gains

The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5994 - 0.6014 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6000. The NZD has found some demand just below the 0.6000 area as the US stock market pushed higher again overnight.

• Robin Brooks on X: “China was heading for deflation before US tariffs. Now goods pile up in ports and exporters struggle with rising inventories. Tariffs are inflationary for the US, but the big story is China, which will now tip into full-scale deflation.  https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/1929784783195836689”
• The NZD held up ok with demand seen just below 0.6000, this while the USD continued to retrace higher overnight. NZD bulls will be hoping this demand holds in order to have another go at breaking above 0.6050. This might be a big ask though before we get NFP on Friday.
• The support back towards 0.5850 has held very well, and while this continues to hold expect buyers to be around on dips. A clear break above 0.6050 could provide the spark for the next leg higher.
• CFTC Data showed Asset managers maintaining their shorts, while the leveraged community pared back only a little of the decent short they had initiated the week before.
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5900(NZD401m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5990(NZD390m June 5), 0.5895(NZD305m June 5)

• AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0752 - 1.0784, currently trading 1.0765.  A top looks in place now just above 1.0900, the market will have been looking for a more dovish tone from the RBNZ last week and AUD/NZD could now see supply on bounces. The sell zone is back towards 1.0800/25 with the first target being around 1.0650.

  Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

  

  Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6454 - 0.6480 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6460. The AUD tried lower on the GDP missing lower, but the bids that were around overnight again provided support towards the 0.6450 area. 

• AUSTRALIA DATA: GDP Details Signal Gradual Recovery Still In Place. While Q1 GDP was weaker than expected and slower than Q4, it was impacted by extreme weather events in the quarter which impacted exports and domestic demand. Thus there is likely to be some positive payback in Q2 and so a reaction by the RBA to the weakness at its July 8 decision is not assured. Given special factors, it is likely to watch the more timely monthly data closely for signs of a Q2 recovery..
• The AUD is basically back to where it started the day, we may have to wait for NFP on Friday to get some clearer direction.
• Price is back in the 0.6350 - 0.6550 range, a sustained break above 0.6550 is needed for the move higher to accelerate. The dips look to be well supported while above 0.6350.
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6450(AUD625m), 0.6455(AUD449m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6300(AUD 1.47b June 6)

• AUD/JPY - Today's range 92.83 - 93.17, it is trading currently around 93.000. Range looks 92.00 - 94.00 for now, a sustained break sub 91.50/92.00 will bring focus back to towards the lows again.

  Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart

  

  Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

Zerohedge wrote an article highlighting the recent increase in Treasury buybacks and asks is this Scott Bessent stepping in ? https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-treasury-vs-fed-fed-sidelined-bessent-unleashes-record-10-billion-bond-buyback

• “Scott Besent revealed that he has breakfast with Powell every week, and also said that if the Fed does nothing, he might take matters in his own hands, and since the Treasury has a "big toolkit" one of the things it could do is "up the Treasury buybacks"
• “Six weeks later, with the Fed sidelined and unwilling to do anything to ease the plight of US treasuries which continue to trade at dangerous levels - the 30Y is flirting with a 5% level - it appears this is what Bessent has done.”
• “At 2pm on Tuesday afternoon, the Treasury announced the results of its latest Treasury buyback operation. While the operation itself was not remarkable - the Treasury had been holding these more or less weekly since April 2024 - the size of it was: at $10 billion, this was the largest Treasury buyback operation in history.”
• “And while the maturity range of the cusips accepted for buyback was of low duration, in the interval between July 15, 2025 and May 31, 2027, we are about to see sizable increases in the total buyback size of longer duration treasuries.”
• “Sure enough, tomorrow at 2pm, the Treasury will complete a buyback focusing on Treasuries maturing in the 2036-2045 interval, i.e., 10-20 year paper, and the maximum amount to be redeemed will be $2 billion, up 100% from the last such buyback on May 6, when the maximum amount to be redeemed was $1 billion.”

• “In fact, the last time there was a treasury buyback anywhere close to today's amount was in mid/late April when Treasuries were tumbling and when someone had to step in and cushion their fall.”

  Fig 1 : Treasury Debt Buyback

  

  Source: Zerohedge