NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD In The Sell Zone, The USD Is A Concern Though
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5937 - 0.5949 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5845, +0.10%. US rates extended lower again and the USD traded soft, the headwinds for the USD seem to be compounding which points to a potential look below its support. The NZD has bounced into what should be the perfect zone to fade for bears, the price action for the USD though gives me pause. CFTC Data shows light positioning in a market that is struggling for a strong trend as we move back into the middle of the recent 0.5800-0.6100 range.
- (Bloomberg) -- “New Zealand’s main opposition Labour Party is open to having a discussion about the RBNZ’s 1-3% inflation target, the NZ Herald reports.”
- Q2 Data Suggesting Weak GDP Outcome: Q2 NZ business sales values rose 2.1% q/q with profits up 4.2%. Salaries and wages rose only 1.2% q/q. Manufacturing volumes fell 2.9% q/q after rising 2.4%. Q2 GDP is released on September 18 and the RBNZ is forecasting it to fall 0.3% q/q. Data has shown weak building, goods exports and manufacturing volumes. The RBNZ is expected to cut rates at its October and November meetings.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5800(NZD515m Sept 10), 0.5870(NZD320m Sept 10) - BBG
- CFTC Data of last week shows Asset Managers added slightly to their new short position in the NZD -5127(Last -4743), the Leveraged community have completely exited their short and have turned a fraction long +285(Last -225).
- AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.1093 - 1.1105, currently trading 1.1100. The Cross is consolidating around 1.1100, dips back towards 1.1000/1.1050 should be supported now.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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AUSSIE 10-YEAR TECHS: (U5) Recovers With Treasuries
- RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
- RES 1: 95.960 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 95.710 @ 14:34 BST Aug 8
- SUP 1: 95.415/95.300 - Low May 15 / Low Jan 14
- SUP 2: 95.275 - Low Nov 14 (cont) and a key support
- SUP 3: 94.707 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Aussie 10-yr futures received a boost from the US Treasury rally that followed a poor NFP print. This keeps Aussie 10-year futures toward the top end of the recent range. To the upside, next resistance is at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point. Next support undercuts at 95.420 (pierced), the Feb 13 low, ahead of 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish condition.
SECURITY: Trump To Sign Trilateral Peace Accord With Armenia/Azerbaijan Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to sign a trilateral peace agreement with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev at the White House. LIVESTREAM The event will provide another opportunity for Trump to style himself as peacemaker, after touting success in brokering peace deals between Rwanda/Congo, Cambodia/Thailand, and India/Pakistan.
- The accord aims to resolve a decade-long dispute over the sovereignty of Nagorno-Karabakh - a breakaway Azerbaijani province that was under de facto Armenian control from the dissolution of the Soviet Union until a 2020 war.
- Trump described the meeting on Truth Social as a “historic peace summit,” noting that the US will also sign “Bilateral Agreements [to] fully unlock the potential of the South Caucasus Region.”
- White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told reporters that Trump would sign deals with both Armenia and Azerbaijan on energy, technology, economic cooperation, border security, infrastructure and trade.
- A White House official said: "It's about the entire region, and [the leaders] know that that region is known to be safer and more prosperous with President Trump."
- Reuters reports that the US will have development rights to build transportation links in the strategic Zangezur Corridor, a mountainous stretch of Armenian territory between Azerbaijan and its Nakhichevan exclave.
- Politico notes: “But whether this is just a photo opportunity or a lasting end to a conflict that has undermined stability in a region dominated by Russia and Iran will depend on whether the US can address several key challenges.”
FED: Balance Sheet Runoff Continues At Steady $20B/Month Pace (2/2)
Fed asset holdings were little changed in the past week. SOMA runoff totaled $2.8B (composed of $4.2B less nominal Tsy holdings and $1.4B more TIPS), with emergency lending/liquidity facilities $0.7B lower.
- Over the last 4 weeks, the $20B/monthly expected QT pace was roughly adhered to: MBS fell $18B, with Treasury net holdings down around $2B (a fall in TIPS holdings offsetting a slight rise in nominals).
- Discount window usage accounted for the fall in lending facility usage this week; takeup is now down to $4.9B, down $1.3B in the last month and down from the 1-year high of $6.4B set in July which looks to have been a temporary blip higher.
