NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Has Broken Support, Risk Is A Move Back To 0.5850

The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 143.97 - 144.75, Asia is currently trading around 144.35. USD/JPY has been better bid for most of our session as US yields extend their move higher and US Equity futures turn positive again after initially trying lower.

• “Japan and the EU plan to step up defense-industry cooperation, with officials and private-sector representatives set to meet Monday, Nikkei reported.”(BBG)
• The BoJ is expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 0.50% at its June 16-17 meeting. The key area of interest will be Governor Kazuo Ueda's post-meeting press conference. Investors will closely examine his comments for any signals on the timing and likelihood of future rate hikes. If the BoJ begins to hint at stronger underlying inflationary trends or shows greater optimism about the economy, it could stoke expectations of a rate hike in the autumn.
• "JAPAN, US LEADERS ARRANGING TO MEET ON 17TH: KYODO" - BBG
• USD/JPY held its support back towards the 142.00 area once more, with oil surging again and US yields bouncing this pair has drifted back to the middle of its recent range.
• Price is back in its recent 142.00 - 147.00 range and will need a break either side of that to get a clearer direction. The larger interest around 145.00 looks to be rolling off tonight.
• The market still seems very confident of a move lower in USD/JPY but with positioning quite large now we have seen the risk of pullbacks increase. A break above 147.00 would be needed to challenge the conviction of any shorts.
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 145.00($4.87b). Upcoming Close Strikes : 143.00($692m June 18).

• CFTC data shows Asset managers maintained their already extensive JPY longs, leveraged funds looked to have pared back their own longs once more.

  Fig 1 : JPY CFTC Data

  

  Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Gold made highs of $3451.31 in the first part of trade, but we sit lower now, last back close to $3431, down slightly from end levels last week. Early gains were driven by the spike in oil from the open, which contributed to softer US equity futures. Sentiment has stabilized somewhat though, with US equity futures back modestly in the green. The USD has also ticked up against the majors, likely providing an additional headwind to gold. 

• Still, recent gains reinforce the bullish trend with the bull trigger at $3500.1. Moving average studies are in a bull mode and highlight a dominant uptrend. Further risk off episodes can't be ruled out, with the on-going Israel-Iran conflict.
• Continued pessimism towards the USD should also support gold demand.
• On the downside, note the following support: $3325.3/3249.9 - 20- and 50-day EMA. 

The NZD/USD had a range of 0.6004 - 0.6026 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6010. A very quiet session for the NZD, it continues to cling to its foothold above 0.6000.

• NZ Data -  Slower Growth Expected But Inflation Eases To Band Mid-Point. The NZIER June survey of forecasters has been published and is showing a downward revision to NZ growth this financial year and next compared with the March results. FY25 is down 0.3pp to 1.1% and FY26 0.2pp to 1.9%, the recovery remains in place supported by lower rates.
• BNZ Indices Signal Economic Slowdown & Job Shedding. BNZ’s manufacturing and services PMIs both deteriorated in May and are below the breakeven-50 level and senior economist Steel warned that they are consistent with a return to a recession. With rates now in the “neutral zone” and the RBNZ Governor Hawkesby saying the MPC doesn’t have a bias, it looks like the RBNZ will be on hold on July 9 as it waits for more data, but it does monitor these indices and they suggest that the meeting will be “live”.
• The USD’s muted reaction to the events on Friday have the market again questioning the role it has as a safe haven ?
• The NZD continues to find solid support around the 0.6000 area. The upward momentum though has stalled for now and the market will be watching if risk can continue to hold up as impressively as it did on Friday night. 
• While the support around 0.5850 holds in NZD/USD there should be buyers around on dips. A clear break above 0.6050/0.6100 and the move could start to accelerate. 
• CFTC Data showed Asset managers paring back their shorts slightly over the week, the leverage community did likewise.

• AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0761 - 1.0798, currently trading 1.0770. A top looks in place now just above 1.0900, the cross topped out last week towards the 1.0800/25 sell area, the first target looks to be around 1.0650.

  Fig 1: NZD CFTC Data

  

• Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P