NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Consolidates Above 0.5950 in A Quiet Session
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.5952 - 0.5972 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5965, +0.15%. The pair found some demand around the 0.5950 area and has consolidated around here as we await the FOMC tomorrow morning. There is lots of event risk coming up this week that could all impact the risk backdrop significantly. Support now seen back towards the 0.5850/0.5900 area.
- NEW ZEALAND: ANZ Business Survey Signals Continued Lacklustre Recovery. The ANZ survey showed little change in business confidence and the outlook in July with the former rising 1.5 points to 47.8 but the latter falling 0.3 to 40.6. It signals that the recovery continues but at a gradual pace.
- RNZ - “Westpac chief economist Kelly Eckhold said it was good for the country overall that dairy prices were high. "Exports of cheese are $3 billion. All these dairy products are rising for the same underlying reason - demand for milk fats is increasing. Butter and cheese in particular are the things the world wants."
- "Prices are being bid up by people overseas who are wealthier than us and their incomes are growing more strongly. "That's why they can afford to pay the prices that are pushing the prices up. The question isn't should we be redistributing further the profits from those sectors. The question should be what can we do to improve the incomes of Kiwis so when demand goes up overseas we can keep pace.”
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6000(NZD395m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5965(NZD474m July 31). - BBG
- CFTC Data shows Asset Managers again reduced their newly built longs in NZD +5034(Last +8192), the Leveraged community added slightly to their shorts last week -7328(Last -6744).
- AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0910 - 1.0940, currently trading 1.0925. The cross moved higher in response to the NZ CPI. Dips back to 1.0850/1.0900 should continue to find support as the pair tries to build momentum to move higher.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
NZD: Asia Wrap - NZD/USD Looking Towards 0.6100 And Then Beyond
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.6052 - 0.6078 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6070, +0.23%. NZD has drifted back to its highs albeit in a very quiet Asian session. US Equity futures have opened strongly in Asia printing new all-time highs, ESU5 +0.4%, NQU5 +0.5% after Canada rescinds its digital services tax.
- CFTC Data shows Asset Managers have cut their shorts and are now beginning to build a long in NZD +12195, the Leveraged community maintained their short that had just been added to -11981.
- NEW ZEALAND Business Activity & Confidence Up, But Still Off Cycle Highs: The New Zealand ANZ business activity and confidence measures rose in June. On activity we moved back to 40.9, from 34.8 in May, while confidence rebounded to 46.3, from 36.6 prior. The improvement in June follows a move lower in these headline indices since the end of Q1.
- A huge bounce from sub 0.5900 and the NZD has now established a foothold above 0.6000, with the USD breaking lower the NZD/USD looks to be building for a potential break higher of its own. A clear break of 0.6100 could provide the momentum to begin a larger move higher, initially targeting the 0.6400 area.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5850(NZD404m July 1), 0.5800(649m July2)
- AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0764 - 1.0799, currently trading 1.0770. The cross is struggling to get any momentum for now. It looks to be in a 1.0750 - 1.0850 range for now as it awaits a catalyst to provide some clearer direction.
Fig 1: NZD CFTC Data
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
JPY: Asia Wrap - USD/JPY Comes Off, Testing 144.00
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 144.08 - 144.76, Asia is currently trading around 144.09, -0.40%. USD/JPY has drifted lower in our session, though still in the middle of its wider 142.00 - 148.00 range. "US President Donald Trump characterized trade in cars between the US and Japan as unfair and floated the idea of keeping 25% tariffs on autos in place." (BBG)
- The Real Fly on X: "Trump criticized the U.S.–Japan auto-trade relationship as unfair, referring to Japan’s negotiator as “MR. Japan,” and warned of possible new tariffs ahead of the looming JULY 9 deadline.” https://x.com/The_Real_Fly/status/1939488012741521660
- (Bloomberg) -- Japan's industrial production rose less than expected in May, missing analysts' estimates as the US tariffs hit the nation's exports. Factory output increased 0.5% from the previous month, the Industry Ministry reported Monday. Economists had expected a 3.5% gain. Output fell 1.8% from a year earlier, missing expectations of a 1.6% rise.
- CFTC data shows Asset managers paring back their JPY longs very slightly +93003, while leveraged funds added to their longs again trying to rebuild their position +15935.
- The rejection of 148.00 points to a potential top being in place now and shows just how quick the market is to return to selling USD’s. USD/JPY is looking for a fresh catalyst in the middle of its 142.00 - 148.00 range, while the USD continues to move lower this should see sellers on any bounce for now.
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 143.85($985m), 145.50(845m).Upcoming Close Strikes : 143.85($885m June 30), 145.00($1.02b July 1)
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
GOLD: Gold Set for Worst Month of 2025
- Gold edged modestly higher in the Asia trading day, gaining +0.15% to US$3,279.45.
- The gains weren't enough to extinguish the losses for the month and bullion remains down -0.30% for June and facing its first monthly loss of 2025.
- Gold traders will eye closely the US data this week for further indications for interest rates as the input into gold's next move.
- Gold has traded below the 50-day EMA of $3,289.72. The first times this year bullion has fallen below the 50-day EMA.
China's biggest gold and copper producer Zijin Mining Group is to buy a gold project in Kazakhstan for US$1.2bn.
