JPY: Asia-Pac: USD/JPY Stalls Toward 154.50, Consolidates Gains Above 154.00
The USD/JPY range today has been 154.02 - 154.49 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 154.30, +0.10%. The pair extended higher in our session as it consolidated its recent gains above the 154.00 area. USD/JPY found solid demand around the 153.00 area last week and this return of positive sentiment has brought the focus back to the 154-155 resistance area. A sustained break above here is needed to potentially see the uptrend regain upward momentum, through here the focus would then turn toward the 160 area where I would start to become wary of intervention risks. If the pair is to move higher the dips towards 153.70/1.5400 should be supported on the day.
- MNI AU - Current A/C Surplus Surges On Income Inflows, But May Not Aid Yen: Japan Sep trade and current account balance data were stronger than forecast, particularly on the current account side. In unadjusted terms we printed 4483.3bn, versus 2456.6bn projected and 3701.4bn prior. In seasonally adjust terms we were at 4347.6bn for the current account, close to double the consensus projection and prior outcome. This is the best outcome for at least a few decades. This isn't necessarily a yen positive though, at least based off recent correlations. Current account shifts haven't coincided with yen shifts in recent years.
- The 30-year JGB auction delivered weak results. Today's result is consistent with this month's 10-year auction, which also demonstrated weak demand metrics
- Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : none - BBG.
Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Weekly Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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US: Trump Oval Office Announcement Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer.
- The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here.
RATINGS: Moody's Completes Periodic Review Of Belgium, No Rating Action
No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."
- There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."
MACRO ANALYSIS: US Macro Week Ahead: No CPI, But Plenty Of Pre-Blackout FedSpeak
Below is the week’s data schedule, with MNI’s annotation of whether or not data will be postponed.
- As we went to press, the Fed announced that next week's Industrial Production data will be postponed (was due to be published next Friday Oct 17) as the data “incorporate a range of data from other government agencies, the publication of which has been delayed as a result of the federal government shutdown.”
- We won’t be getting September CPI as scheduled on Oct 15, but at least the BLS announced it will publish the data on Oct 24.
- As such next week we’ll be looking at some under-covered data points, including the Redbook weekly and Chicago Fed’s CARTS retail sales data (in lieu of the Census Bureau retail sales report), with a little more focus than usual on regional Fed manufacturing indices (NY, Philadelphia).
- Once again, the dearth of tier-one data leaves Fed commentary in focus ahead of the pre-FOMC blackout period: highlights for us are Philadelphia Fed President Paulson making her first comments on monetary policy on Monday since being appointed in the summer, while as always Chair Powell bears watching on Tuesday (we also hear from Bowman, Waller, Collins, Miran, Schmid, and Musalem).
- Additionally we get the latest Beige Book which was already key given the FOMC was already increasingly focused on anecdotal information as it attempts to navigate murky economic waters.
