FOREX: Asia-Pac USD: BBDXY Drifts Sideways Below 1220

Nov-13 04:32

The BBDXY has had a range today of 1217.84 - 1219.36 in the Asia-Pac session; it is currently trading around 1218, +0.02%.The USD trades sideways below 1220 at the moment in a directionless market. I am caught a little undecided on the USD, I liked the fade into 1230 initially but short term I expect dips back toward 1210-1215 to now be supported first up. We could chop around sideways for a while while the market decides which way to go. Above 1230 and we could start to break higher, below 1205 and the downtrends momentum could be re-engaged. Short-term while the 1221-1222 area caps price my bias would be for a test toward the 1210-1215 support.

  • EUR/USD -  Asian range 1.1579 - 1.1594, Asia is currently trading 1.1590. The pair continued to build on its support below 1.1500, I suspect rallies will now find sellers toward the 1.1650 area initially. This has been the pivot within the larger 1.1400-1.1900 range over the past few months. On the day a move back below 1.1540-1.1550 needed to turn lower again.
  • GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3111 - 1.3134, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3125. The pair is trading sideways chopping around the 1.31 handle. I continue to favor fading rallies though as GBP looks to have put in a medium term top. I suspect the 1.3250-1.3300 area is the place to fade if we see that level again. 
  • Cross asset : SPX +0.10%, Gold $4210, US 10-Year 4.0825%, BBDXY 1218, Crude Oil $58.40
  • Data/Events : France ILO Unemployment Rate, EZ ECB Publishes Economic Bulletin/Industrial Production 

Fig 1: BBDXY Spot Daily Chart

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Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

Historical bullets

AUD: A$ Pressured By Risk Pullback Following China Shipping Retaliation

Oct-14 04:29

Aussie is underperforming pressured by weaker China/HK equities and US-China tensions over shipping duties due to be implemented Tuesday. China has not only retaliated with a fee on US ships docking at its ports but is also introducing restrictions on Chinese shipping companies’ US divisions. Risk appetite remains very sensitive to US-China developments. AUDUSD breached 0.6500 and is currently 0.5% lower at 0.6482, close to the intraday trough at 0.6481. The USD index is only slightly lower.

  • US-China working-level trade talks occurred on Monday and China reiterated today its right to control rare earth exports and that the US should negotiate.
  • Kiwi is also impacted by the pullback in risk but less than Aussie leaving AUDNZD down 0.2% to 1.1358, close to the intraday low. It reached a high of 1.1395 following weak NZ consumption data and the RBNZ announcing an easing of LVR requirements. The share of loans with an LVR above 80% will be increased to 25% from 1 December.
  • AUDJPY is down 0.8% to 98.436 in the weaker risk environment. It reached 99.485 earlier. AUDEUR is 0.6% lower at 0.5595 and AUDGBP -0.6% to 0.4856.
  • The ASX is up 0.1%, Hang Seng down 0.2% and S&P e-mini is flat. Oil prices are now flat with WTI around $59.53/bbl. Copper is down 0.5% and iron ore is around $104/t.
  • Later Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy. The Fed’s Bowman, Waller and Collins, ECB’s Machado, Cipollone and Donnery, and BoE’s Bailey and Taylor also appear. US September NFIB small business optimism prints. On Wednesday, RBA Assistant Governor Hunter speaks and Westpac’s lead indicator for September is released.

CROSS ASSET: Risk Appetite Softer On Fresh US-China Tensions

Oct-14 04:29

Risk off is emerging China headlines around sanctioning US units of Hanwha Ocean and a broader announcement on charging US ships entering China ports. This comes after risk appetite improved on Monday as China looked to play down the impact of its rare earth export curbs, while US officials (including US President Trump) struck a more conciliatory tone around US-China relations (after Trump's Friday tariff threat hit market sentiment). 

  • Via Xinhua - "China's Ministry of Transport on Tuesday revealed a detailed document regarding measures to charge special port fees on ships owned or operated by U.S. enterprises, organizations and individuals." It adds: "These detailed measures were unveiled following the ministry's announcement on Oct. 10 that China will charge special port fees on U.S. ships starting Oct. 14 -- in response to the U.S. move to impose additional port fees on Chinese ships after a Section 301 investigation".
  • This points to some tit for tat escalation in the shipping space.
  • US eminis are down in the red, off 0.4%, while Bitcoin is down 2% for the session.   USD/JPY is back under 152.00 (against earlier highs of 152.61). USD/CNH is back above 7.1400. 

US TSYS: Move Higher in Yields Stalls in the Afternoon

Oct-14 04:14
  • As treasuries began trading in the Asia trading day, yields across the curve opened 1-3bps higher before taking back some of the early moves.
  • The US 2-Yr traded up at 3.515%, but rallied back to again test a near term support of  3.50% that it has been unable to hold below.
  • The US 5-Yr is back to flat at 3.63% having been +2bps higher in the morning session.  
  • The US 10-Yr is up +1bps to 4.04%, having opened at 4.06%.  Last week it failed to test 4.00% and looks likely to remain in the 4.00% - 4.20% range for now, seeking a fresh catalyst to break out.  With FED speakers in coming days and the FEDs Powell's economic address at the NABE meeting, treasury traders will be looking for signals for monetary policy that could challenge this current range.  
  • The US 30-Yr is up +2bps at 4.64% just off the Tuesday morning high of 4.65%.  
  • Futures are edging lower too as TYZ5 is has not traded too far from where it started the day and is currently +01 at 113-06