NZD: Asia-Pac: NZD/USD - Drifts Back Toward 0.5650
The NZD/USD had a range today of 0.5647 - 0.5667 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.5655, -0.25%. The NZD drifted lower as risk opened weaker on the Asia open, it has since recovered and the NZD has moved off the lows. The NZD does stand out as a vehicle to express a short in but should this bout of improved risk sentiment grow it will be tough for the NZD to ignore it and it could play catch up to the move at some point. I still suspect any decent bounce in the NZD will again attract sellers though. The first sell area on a pullback would be around 0.5750 and then the more pivotal 0.5850 area. Dips on the day toward 0.5630-40 needs to hold for the short-term retracement to potentially extend.
- MNI AU - Retail Spending Growth Turns Down Again: Spending on cards continues to have positive momentum but remains soft with annual growth rates turning down. Data since the last RBNZ decision are consistent with only a weak recovery and so another rate cut, probably 25bp, on 26 November is likely. October retail transactions rose 0.2% m/m to be up only 0.2% y/y down from 0.9% but still up 2.2% 3m/3m annualised. Total expenditure was flat on the month and deteriorated to -1.7% y/y from -1.3%, the weakest since May.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5380(NZD460m). Upcoming Close Strikes : none - BBG
- The NZD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 38 Points
Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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US TSYS: Move Higher in Yields Stalls in the Afternoon
- As treasuries began trading in the Asia trading day, yields across the curve opened 1-3bps higher before taking back some of the early moves.
- The US 2-Yr traded up at 3.515%, but rallied back to again test a near term support of 3.50% that it has been unable to hold below.
- The US 5-Yr is back to flat at 3.63% having been +2bps higher in the morning session.
- The US 10-Yr is up +1bps to 4.04%, having opened at 4.06%. Last week it failed to test 4.00% and looks likely to remain in the 4.00% - 4.20% range for now, seeking a fresh catalyst to break out. With FED speakers in coming days and the FEDs Powell's economic address at the NABE meeting, treasury traders will be looking for signals for monetary policy that could challenge this current range.
- The US 30-Yr is up +2bps at 4.64% just off the Tuesday morning high of 4.65%.
- Futures are edging lower too as TYZ5 is has not traded too far from where it started the day and is currently +01 at 113-06
OIL: Crude Range Trading As Watching US-China & Supply/Demand Developments
Oil prices are slightly higher but have been trading within a narrow range during today’s APAC session with no new developments to give it direction. Later on Tuesday though, the IEA’s October report, US industry-based inventory data and Fed Chair Powell comments on the economy have the potential to move crude. Brent is up 0.4% to $63.56/bbl off the intraday low of $63.41 following a peak of $63.63. WTI is 0.4% higher at $59.72/bbl after reaching $59.82. The USD index is slightly lower.
- OPEC left its oil market outlook unchanged with demand forecast to rise by 1.3mbd in 2025 and 1.4mbd in 2026. The IEA releases its monthly report Tuesday and tends to be less optimistic than OPEC. It has been projecting a record market surplus for 2026.
- US-China working-level trade talks occurred on Monday and China reiterated today its right to control rare earth exports and that the US should negotiate. Oil is likely to sell off if there is any deterioration in the situation as it remains concerned about the impact on energy demand from increased protectionism.
- Later Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy. The Fed’s Bowman, Waller and Collins, ECB’s Machado, Cipollone and Donnery, and BoE’s Bailey and Taylor also appear. US September NFIB small business optimism, UK labour market data and German September HICP and euro area October ZEW print.
ASIA STOCKS: Equities Remain Weak as HSI Breaks Through Key Technical
With Japan back today playing catch up from yesterday's weakness, most key markets in the region have moved lower Tuesday. This comes despite the better global risk tones on Monday, as Trump softened his language around China (after tariff threats late on Friday).
Having closed at new highs Thursday, the NIKKEI's falls started Friday on apparent profit taking which was then over ran by Trump's comments as risk appetite declined. Out yesterday for a public holiday, Japanese investors continued to sell today taking the NIKKEI lower by -1.30%.
In Hong Kong the Hang Seng fell -0.45% today, despite trying to open stronger and traded through the 50-day EMA of 25,886. Were the HSI to hold below the 50-day EMA it would be the first time since the trade war induced sell off from April which then resulted in a near on five month rally to new highs. Other key Chinese bourses did little holding near to opening levels.
The KOSPI was a regional exception jumping +0.50% today as the 19% constituent - Samsung - beat profit estimates for its most recent quarter and its biggest quarterly profit in three years.
Following a terrible end to September for the NIFTY 50, it has rallied seven out of nine trading days in October. Against the regionally weak backdrop yesterday, the NIFTY 50's fall of -0.23% was a relative outperformance and in opening trade Tuesday it has recovered yesterday's falls.
