AUD: Asia-Pac: AUD/USD Trying To Push Above 0.6560 On Better Employment Data
The AUD/USD has had a range today of 0.6533 - 0.6565 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6555, +0.20%. The AUD/USD has been given a nudge higher by better employment data. The AUD/USD needs a sustained push above the 0.6560 area for the focus to turn back toward the 0.6650/0.6700 year highs. Look for intra-day dips toward 0.6530/0.6540 to be supported initially as the market tries to build upward momentum.
- MNI AU - Recent Data In Line With RBA View Of Stable Labour Market, Rates On Hold: In her November press conference, RBA Governor Bullock reiterated that the central bank looks at a range of labour market indicators and that overall they were stable and suggested a steady unemployment rate. The October jobs data were in line with this view. She also noted that the quit rate had jumped and that surveys and the RBA’s business liaison programme reported increased skilled labour difficulties. This will add to concern that policy may not be as restrictive as previously thought.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6500(AUD549m), 0.6520(AUD902m), 0.6525(AUD 680mm). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6400(AUD913m Nov 18), 0.6750(AUD2.17b Nov 14) - BBG
The AUD/USD Average True Range for the last 10 Trading days: 43 Points
Fig 1: AUD/USD spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
OIL: Crude Range Trading As Watching US-China & Supply/Demand Developments
Oil prices are slightly higher but have been trading within a narrow range during today’s APAC session with no new developments to give it direction. Later on Tuesday though, the IEA’s October report, US industry-based inventory data and Fed Chair Powell comments on the economy have the potential to move crude. Brent is up 0.4% to $63.56/bbl off the intraday low of $63.41 following a peak of $63.63. WTI is 0.4% higher at $59.72/bbl after reaching $59.82. The USD index is slightly lower.
- OPEC left its oil market outlook unchanged with demand forecast to rise by 1.3mbd in 2025 and 1.4mbd in 2026. The IEA releases its monthly report Tuesday and tends to be less optimistic than OPEC. It has been projecting a record market surplus for 2026.
- US-China working-level trade talks occurred on Monday and China reiterated today its right to control rare earth exports and that the US should negotiate. Oil is likely to sell off if there is any deterioration in the situation as it remains concerned about the impact on energy demand from increased protectionism.
- Later Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy. The Fed’s Bowman, Waller and Collins, ECB’s Machado, Cipollone and Donnery, and BoE’s Bailey and Taylor also appear. US September NFIB small business optimism, UK labour market data and German September HICP and euro area October ZEW print.
ASIA STOCKS: Equities Remain Weak as HSI Breaks Through Key Technical
With Japan back today playing catch up from yesterday's weakness, most key markets in the region have moved lower Tuesday. This comes despite the better global risk tones on Monday, as Trump softened his language around China (after tariff threats late on Friday).
Having closed at new highs Thursday, the NIKKEI's falls started Friday on apparent profit taking which was then over ran by Trump's comments as risk appetite declined. Out yesterday for a public holiday, Japanese investors continued to sell today taking the NIKKEI lower by -1.30%.
In Hong Kong the Hang Seng fell -0.45% today, despite trying to open stronger and traded through the 50-day EMA of 25,886. Were the HSI to hold below the 50-day EMA it would be the first time since the trade war induced sell off from April which then resulted in a near on five month rally to new highs. Other key Chinese bourses did little holding near to opening levels.
The KOSPI was a regional exception jumping +0.50% today as the 19% constituent - Samsung - beat profit estimates for its most recent quarter and its biggest quarterly profit in three years.
Following a terrible end to September for the NIFTY 50, it has rallied seven out of nine trading days in October. Against the regionally weak backdrop yesterday, the NIFTY 50's fall of -0.23% was a relative outperformance and in opening trade Tuesday it has recovered yesterday's falls.
GOLD: Gold Continues Rally Without New Drivers
Gold has continued to rally today despite a flat US dollar, 2-year yields and S&P e-mini as it appears to be carried by momentum with no new fresh catalysts. It is now up 7.8% in October and currently 1.3% higher at $4164.0/oz today, around the record high of $4164.24, above resistance at $4161.7. US-China working-level trade talks occurred on Monday and China reiterated today its right to control rare earth exports and for the US to negotiate. Gold & silver are looking even more stretched.
- After rising over 4% on Monday, silver continued to rally Tuesday driven by momentum and significant liquidity issues in London. The metal is up 1.6% to $53.20 today after an all-time high of $53.465 earlier in the APAC session, above the fourth resistance level at $52.689, a Fibonacci projection. It is now up over 14% this month.
- Societe Generale revised up its gold forecast to $5000/oz for end-2026, according to Bloomberg, due to strong ETF and central bank flows, which had exceeded its expectations.
- The ongoing US government shutdown is also supporting precious metals with no apparent progress to end the impasse. Wednesday military personnel will miss their first pay but President Trump has said money will be found. It would be the first time in modern US history if it occurs.
- US September CPI was scheduled for 15 October but has now been delayed to 24 October contributing to difficulty in gauging where the economy is ahead of the 29 October Fed decision.
- Later Fed Chair Powell speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy. The Fed’s Bowman, Waller and Collins, ECB’s Machado, Cipollone and Donnery, and BoE’s Bailey and Taylor also appear. US September NFIB small business optimism, UK labour market data and German September HICP and euro area October ZEW print.
