FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - Is The Powell Sacking Rumour Enough To Turn The USD Lower?
The BBDXY has had a range of 1203.66 - 1206.99 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1206, +0.20%. What is clear from the price action is the market is very quick to sell USD’s again if given the excuse, is the mere threat of Powell being dismissed enough to turn the USD lower again. (Bloomberg) - 'The narrative around a long-term decline in the dollar has found fresh fuel from renewed concern about political interference in US monetary policy. The mere revival of discussions - however implausible legally - around firing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has reintroduced a key bearish catalyst for the dollar.'
- EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1614 - 1.1641, Asia is currently trading 1.1620. The pair is testing its first support around the 1.1600 area. The price still looks a little stretched in the short term and is vulnerable to any correction in the USD, first support around 1.1600 then more importantly the 1.1450 area.
- GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3384 - 1.3430, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3390. Price has rejected the move higher and Bailey’s hint that bigger rate cuts are on their way if the job market deteriorates further will have all eyes on the data out today. The pair has moved very quickly to test important support around 1.3350/1.3400. We have seen some demand initially around this support but a sustained break below and a deeper pullback towards 1.3000/1.3200 could be on the cards. Bounces back towards 1.3500 should now see offers first up.
- USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1781 - 7.1845, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1461, Asia is currently dealing around 7.1820. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2000 area and the PBOC manages the fix lower. Above 7.2000 and we could see a test of the USD Shorts.
- Cross asset : SPX -0.25%, Gold $3355, US 10-Year 4.47%, BBDXY 1207, Crude oil $65.67
- Data/Events : EZ CPI
Fig 1: GBP/USD Spot 120min Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
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ASIA STOCKS: Geopolitics Dragging Markets Lower
Major bourses in Asia were lower today as the uncertainty in the Middle East weighs on sentiment, in a day light on economic news in the region. Korea's KOSPI had closed in on 3,000 early in the trading day only for a complete turnaround and head lower, following the lead from elsewhere.
- In China, the Hang Seng drifted marginally lower by -0.13% and remains down by -0.55% over the last five trading days. The CSI 300 followed, down -0.15%, the Shanghai Composite down -0.19% and the Shenzhen Composite is down a mere --0.04% and is barely positive over the last five trading days.
- The KOSPI is down -0.34% in what was a complete turnaround having rallied early. It remains one of the strongest in the region over the last five trading days up over 2%
- The FTSE Malay KLCI is down -0.39% following yesterday's modest gains.
- The Jakarta Composite is up by +0.70% taking back yesterday's losses of -0.68% to stem four consecutive days of losses.
- The FTSE Straits Times in Singapore is up +0.28% whilst the PSEi in the Philippines has gained +0.53%
- The NIFTY 50 in India is down -0.36% given back from yesterday's gains of +0.92%
INDONESIA: MNI BI Preview-June 2025: Consecutive Cuts Unlikely
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- Bank Indonesia's (BI) decision is announced on June 18 and it is likely to keep rates at 5.5% after cutting them 25bp in May, although 9 out of 31 analysts on Bloomberg expect another 25bp reduction.
- With the focus remaining on the currency, we believe that BI will be cautious regarding back-to-back easing given that the Fed is widely expected to be on hold this month and it isn’t expected to resume cutting until later this year.
- With the economy slowing and inflation “controlled”, BI is likely to retain its easing bias, be cautious and look for opportunities to ease further going forward depending on global and Fed developments.
FOREX: Asia FX Wrap - The USD Continues To Struggle
The BBDXY has had a range of 1201.63 - 1203.68 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1201.”FX traders will be impressed at the PBOC’s confidence in the yuan, despite all the uncertainty around the Middle East. Meanwhile, US importers are increasingly being asked by their foreign counterparties to settle transactions in currencies other than the US dollar, including renminbi.”(BBG)
- EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1543 - 1.1567, Asia is currently trading 1.1565. EUR has rejected the move above 1.1600 but dips should continue to find demand, first support back towards the 1.1400 area then 1.1100/1200. EUR/USD looked to have broken the pivotal 1.1500 area last week, this needs to be sustained to signal a larger move higher.
- GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3558 - 1.3580, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3575. The GBP continues to hold above its Weekly pivot around 1.3500, it needs a catalyst for the move higher to regain momentum. First support seen back towards 1.3400/50.
- USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1787 - 7.1860, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1746. Asia is currently dealing around 7.1820. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2500 area and the PBOC manages the fix lower.
- Cross asset : SPX -0.40%, Gold $3390, US 10-Year 4.436%, BBDXY 1201, Crude oil $72.18
Data/Events : Germany ZEW Survey
Fig 1: USD/CNH Spot Daily Chart
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P
