ASIA: Coming Up In The Asia-Pac Session On Monday
| 0000GMT | 0800HKT | 1100AEST | Australia to Sell 2028 Bonds |
| 0001GMT | 0801HKT | 1101AEST | UK Oct Lloyds Business Barometer |
| 0110GMT | 0910HKT | 1210AEST | Japan Rinban operations |
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
USDCAD TECHS: Resumes Its Downtrend
- RES 4: 1.3693 High Aug 19
- RES 3: 1.3647 High Sep 19
- RES 2: 1.3599 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3546 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3482 @ 15:42 BST Sep 27
- SUP 1: 1.3420 Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 1.3413 Low Feb 9
- SUP 3: 1.3358 76.4% retracement of the Dec 27 ‘23 - Aug 5 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.3288 Low Jan 5
USDCAD remains in a clear downtrend and Tuesday's strong sell-off reinforces this condition. The pair has traded through support at 1.3441, the Aug 28 low. This breach confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started Aug 5. The move down paves the way for an extension towards 1.3358, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance is seen at 1.3546, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.
US TSYS: Curves Bounce as Projected Cuts Gain Momentum Post-PCE
- Treasuries are higher after the bell, trading sideways through the second half after marking session high affter noon. Dec'24 10Y Tsy futures are currently +10.5 at 114-23.5 vs. 114-25 high with initial technical resistance at 115-02.5 (Sep 19 high).
- Curves recovered some ground after Thu's flattening as morning data underscored a rise in projected rate cuts into early 2025 gained vs. pre-data levels (*): Nov'24 cumulative -38.5bp (-37.2bp), Dec'24 -76.8bp (-73.9bp), Jan'25 -109.5bp (-104.5bp).
- Personal income and spending were a little softer than expected in August on a nominal basis, but in "real" terms this was a solid report and data going back to the start of the year were largely revised in a stronger direction.
- Core PCE inflation confirmed trend rates very similar to what Fed Governor Waller had indicated last week. That leaves inflation over the latest four months a little below the 2% PCE target and “supercore” inflation almost at target (although both a little stronger more recently).
- UofM inflation expectations: 1Y: 2.7% (cons 2.7, prelim 2.7) after 2.8% in Aug to confirm a dip to its lowest since Dec 2020. 5-10Y: 3.1% (cons 3.0, prelim 3.1) after 3.0% in Aug.
- Looking ahead: relatively quiet start to next week with MNI Chicago PMI on Monday, ISMs Tuesday, ADP private employment data Wednesday and the September jobs report headlining next week Friday.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.7029 High Feb 14 ‘23
- RES 3: 0.6984 0.764 proj of the Aug 5 - 29 - Sep 11 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6964 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 0.6937 High Sep 27
- PRICE: 0.6934 @ 15:22 BST Sep 27
- SUP 1: 0.6792/6776 Low Sep 23 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6721 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6622 Low Sep 11 and key support
- SUP 4: 0.6608 Low Aug 16
AUDUSD remains firm, touching new multi-month highs ahead of the Friday close. The pair traded to a fresh trend high Friday. Key resistance at 0.6824, the Aug 29 high, has been breached. The break confirms a resumption of the bull cycle that started Aug 5 and a continuation of the move has seen 0.6915, a Fibonacci projection, taken out. For bears, a reversal lower would refocus attention on key short-term support at 0.6622, the Sep 11 low. First firm support is 0.6776, the 20-day EMA.
