FINANCIALS: ASB Bank - New Issue - €500m 5Y Sr Pref

Euro Stoxx 50 futures see a more convincing break below 5,200.00 at the second time of asking.

• Nothing much in the way of a fresh headline catalyst to drive the latest leg of the sell off, with early NY reaction to overnight price swings perhaps factoring in.
• Oil has pulled back from session highs, another potential factor aiding the move.
• The break below 5,200.00 obviously deepens the bearish technical threat in Euro Stoxx 50 futures. Next support seen at the Feb 4 low (5,160.00). 

• Treasuries have been confined to relatively tight ranges since opening markedly higher in Japan trading, reflecting broad risk-off flows on a combination of tariff concerns ahead of April 2 "Liberation Day" and geopolitical fears
• Goldman Sachs for example have marked up their 12-month US recession probability from 20% to 35% on the assumption of a 15pp increase in the average US tariff rate vs 10pp previously.
• Cash yields are 4.5-6bp lower on the day, with declines led by the front end.
• 2Y yields have stabilized around 3.85% (touched Mar 11 but last sustainably lower in Oct 2024) whilst 10Y yields have stabilized around 4.20% (hit a few times throughout March).
• 2s10s at 35bp (+1bp) remains off last week’s recent high of above 38bps.
• TYM5 trades at 111-18 (+11+) off an earlier high of 111-22+, on strong overnight volumes of 545k. Resistance at the March 20 high (111-17+) has been pierced, with bulls now looking to force a break above the March 11 high (111-25) as they aim to build further on last week's gains. Attention is on key resistance at 112-01 (Mar 4 high).  
• Data: MNI Chicago PMI Mar (0945ET), Dallas Fed mfg Mar (1030ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $76B 13W & $68B 26W Bill auctions (1130ET)

• -9,250 FVM5 108-14, sell through 108-14.25 post time bid at 0626:32ET, DV01 $380,000. The 5Y contract trades 108-13.75 last (+7.75).