BASIC INDUSTRIES: Arkema (Baa1/BBB+[P]/NR): 1Q25 Results Headlines

• RES 4: 107.835 2.000 retracement proj of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg     
• RES 3: 107.666 1.764 retracement proj of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg   
• RES 2: 107.600 Round number resistance  
• RES 1: 107.575 Intraday high                  
• PRICE: 107.550 @ 06:37 BST Apr 7     
• SUP 1: 107.470 Intraday low    
• SUP 2: 107.150 Low Apr 4     
• SUP 3: 106.913 20-day EMA     
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27     

Schatz futures maintain a firmer tone and today’s fresh cycle high once again, reinforces a bullish theme. The contract has recently traded through a key resistance at 107.120, the Mar 4 high. This confirmed a full reversal of the Apr 3 - 6 impulsive sell-off. The break also highlights a stronger bull cycle and signals scope for a climb towards 107.600 next. Initial firm support is seen at 106.913, the 20-day EMA.

• Portugal will hold an OT auction on Wednesday to sell E1.0-1.25bln of the 3.875% Feb-30 OT (ISIN: PTOTEROE0014) and the 4.10% Apr-37 OT (ISIN: PTOTE5OE0007).
• Thursday will see Spain come to the market, holding its second April auction a little earlier than usual due to the timing of Easter. On offer will be the 3.50% May-29 Bono (ISIN: ES0000012M51), the 2.55% Oct-32 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K61) and the on-the-run 3.15% Apr-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012O67). The size of the auction will be announced later today.
• Italy will look to conclude the week on Friday with a 3/7/15+ year BTP auction. As we note in the PDF, we think that there is a chance that Italy holds a syndication to launch the new 7-year BTP (maturing 15 July 2032) as part of a dual-tranche syndication. If this is the case, we would expect to see the 7-year portion of this auction cancelled, if not we look for around E4bln of the new issue to be sold. We also look for a reopening of the 3-year 2.65% Jun-28 BTP (ISIN: IT0005641029) which was launched in March. We don’t have a strong view regarding the 15-50-year BTP that will be on offer alongside these issues. Details of the auction will be announced tomorrow.

NOMINAL FLOWS: The week ahead sees a single redemption of E23.0bln from a German Bobl. Coupon payments for the week total E0.5bln of which E0.4bln are from EFSF bonds. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E10.7bln, vs E27.5bln last week.

• RES 4: 1.3434 High Sep 26 ‘24 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.3305 High Oct 2 ‘24 
• RES 2: 1.3207/3274 High Oct 3 ‘24 / High Apr 3 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.3016 50.0% retracement of the Apr 3 - 7 pullback     
• PRICE: 1.2910 @ 06:47 BST Apr 7
• SUP 1: 1.2824 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.2792 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2679 Low Mar 4 
• SUP 4: 1.2559 Low Feb 28 

Last week’s climb in GBPUSD resulted in a break of 1.3015, the Mar 20 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jan 13 and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The latest pullback is considered corrective, key support to watch lies at 1.2792, the 50-day EMA. The bull trigger is 1.3207, the Apr 3 high.