EM LATAM CREDIT: Argentina's Kirchner Conviction Upheld - Neutral
"Argentina's Supreme Court upheld former President Cristina Kirchner's corruption conviction." - Infobae
On the positive side, key opposition leader with an embezzlement conviction upheld should limit support for the opposition but negative because a split in the opposition between Kiciloff and Cristina is now less so and this is potentially unifying for the Peronists.
If Milei is successful near term with monetary and fiscal policy, building reserves as well as more economic reforms then this won't matter much anyway.
The Supreme Court of Argentina upheld a six-year prison sentence for embezzlement and she will not be eligible to run for office in the legislative elections, according to news outlet Infobae.
The former president was reportedly planning on running for a provincial seat in the legislature and has been a powerful force in the opposition Peronist camp as a president of the Justicialist Party.
If she had been allowed to run for the Province of Buenos Aires legislative election on September 7th and won, she would have gained immunity.
Cristina Kirchner was first lady from 2003-2007, then served as president fromn 2007-
2015 and then was vice-president from 2019-2023.
The next step is for the Second Federal Oral Court (TOF 2) to decide the conditions of her detention and given that she is over 70 years old it is believed she will be allowed to serve her sentence under house detention.
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US-CHINA: Officials State "Substanial Progress" From Weekend Trade Talks
Headlines have crossed from both the US and China sides on 'substantial progress' made in terms of trade talks held over the weekend in Switzerland.
BBG notes: "The US and China both reported “substantial progress” after two days of talks in Switzerland aimed at de-escalating a trade war, marking what Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng called “an important first step” toward resolving differences." "While neither side immediately announced specific measures on Sunday, He said the world’s two biggest economies agreed to create a mechanism for further talks, led by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and himself. Bessent said the US would share details on Monday and He promised a joint statement." see this link for more details.
Reuters stated: "U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Sunday they reached a deal with China to cut the U.S. trade deficit, describing "substantial progress" in high-stakes talks with Chinese officials but offering no details as two days of negotiations concluded in Geneva." See this link.
- The market now awaits more details. Rrts noted that China officials were expected to talk to reporters later on Sunday evening Switzerland time.
ASIA: Coming Up In Asia Pac Markets On Monday
| 0050BST | 0750HKT | 0950AEST | Japan Mar BoP |
| 0050BST | 0750HKT | 0950AEST | Japan Apr Bank Lending |
| 0100BST | 0800HKT | 1000AEST | South Korea First 10 days May Trade |
| 0600BST | 1300HKT | 1500AEST | Japan Apr Eco Watchers Survey |
MACRO OUTLOOK: US PPI/Retail Sales And Powell Follow On Thursday [2/2]
- Core PCE implications will then be watched closely in Thursday’s PPI report, and we expect with additional focus on portfolio management after last month’s huge upward revision to February.
- Retail sales, whilst only reported in nominal terms, will offer a keenly awaited look at consumer behavior.
- Real spending moderated to 1.8% annualized in Q1 after 4.0% in Q4 despite likely tariff front-running, with April a good test of how much discretionary spending was pulled forward.
- Finally, Powell provides “Opening Remarks” at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference, although he’s allotted twenty minutes so there is scope for more substantive remarks than you’d usually expect. His message at Wednesday’s FOMC press conference was one firmly of being in no hurry to cut rates amidst huge uncertainty. He also appeared to put more weight on hard data over soft indicators that appear more stagflationary in nature.
