EM LATAM CREDIT: Argentina: UBS Recommends ARGENT 2035s
"UBS strategists are recommending clients go long on Argentina's 2035 dollar bonds as President Javi...
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USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4167 50.0% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 2: 1.4111 High Apr 10
- RES 1: 1.4080 Intraday high
- PRICE: 1.4042 @ 17:20 BST Oct 14
- SUP 1: 1.3928/3863 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3799 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3727 Low Aug 29 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 1.3689 Low Jul 28
A bull cycle in USDCAD remains intact and this week’s firm start reinforces current conditions. Last Thursday’s rally confirmed a recent bull flag on the daily chart and a resumption of the current uptrend. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4111 next, the Apr 10 high, and further out scope is seen for an extension towards 1.4167, a Fibonacci retracement. First key support is 1.3863, 50-day EMA.
CROSS ASSET: Equities Bear Brunt Of Trump Re-Escalation Of Trade Rhetoric
While President Trump's Truth Social comments re China focus primarily on cooking oil as an area of retaliatory trade action for China "purposefully not buying our Soybeans...an Economically Hostile Act", the re-ratcheting up of hostile rhetoric as well as threatening "other elements of Trade, as retribution" has had a risk-off impact on markets largely focused on equities.
- S&P emini futures drop 0.6% on the headline, erasing the afternoon's gains to now sit about 0.3% lower on the day at 6,685. TY futures tick up to afternoon highs at 113-15+, still below session highs of 113-17+. Dollar ticks a little higher but not much in the move.
- While this will likely be digested as a negotiating tactic ahead of US-China talks later this month, it's clear there remains heightened sensitivity to escalations in rhetoric in these matters.
TARIFFS: Trump: Considering Terminating China Cooking Oil Trade As Retribution
US President Trump posts on Truth Social: @realDonaldTrump "I believe that China purposefully not buying our Soybeans, and causing difficulty for our Soybean Farmers, is an Economically Hostile Act. We are considering terminating business with China having to do with Cooking Oil, and other elements of Trade, as retribution. As an example, we can easily produce Cooking Oil ourselves, we don’t need to purchase it from China."
